Gafisa (GFA) is another favorite but it's chart is setting up a nice situation to take profits and buy back later on strength. It is trading in the mid $33s. You can see resistance all over the place in the mid $30s. So I'll be happy to pay "up" (pay a higher price) once Gafisa clears those resistance levels (traders above the moving average) - from where I am selling today that is less than 5% higher. That is a small price to pay right now - if the stock pulls back to upper $20s we could also buy back there. But right now we are in no man's land and with the stock jumping 20% from last week's low point I am going to scurry off like a rat with my crumb.
I am reducing Gafisa from a 1.8% stake to a 0.1% ("holding stake") with sales in the mid $33s.
There are some serious bargains being created now, but until the market turns rational I'll be piling up cash and hoping we don't fall under $10.00 NAV, where we started. Cripes. Even pawn shops are selling off and I don't believe they have any crude oil exposure? Gosh, even the wonderful banks are down - what has this world come to when banks aka the new bull market - sell off.
7 comments:
i also cut GFA. Don;t know if it was a knee jerk reaction to everything else, but it did seem like all of a sudden, the commodities sectors collapsed about 10 min after the Putin bit. I'd also want to get back in at 30, but I did add to potash in the chaos. Choppy markets, Mark, but we've seen this before. I think this is one of those times people need to "remember" what they were feeling at these times they were selling. Or at least, that's what I'm doing.
Yep
I always ask people who point to a chart 3 months later and say "if I only had bought there!! It was so clear!! I'd have made a killing" to remember the circumstances at the time.
i.e. Bear Stearns Monday we literally would of unwound the entire US financial system if not for intervention. Easy to say "wow, buy the panic" :)
I think hedge funds have had this short financial/long energy trade on and they are all levered. Now its being unwound and some of them are being blown up. Many from within by your own name sake - the Risk Managers. Who are saying, get out at any price - we are too levered. This action is now reminiscent of August when the same thing happened. CF was dropping 18% on a daily basis, then jumping, then falling. I was watching that one as my proxy.
This, is simply too much money betting in the same direction and now being unwound in traumatic fashion. Just have to have cash to buy when it finishes.
No rush.
Tradermark
I know you are a fan of Coxe like me. His latest thought is financials have to out pace the market for a total of 6 weeks before he considers the bear market over (four weeks to go). He does not think that will happen
They won't even do it for 4 weeks in my opinion.
haha! I'm not going to defend traditional 'risk management'. I'm on record for saying that too much of it is compliance based which causes systemtic risks. Too much - bad. Too little - bad. And too often risk managers don't trade/invest. While im a Risk Manager by trade, i'm an investor at heart.
This name has been a disappointment to me this year. GFA appeared to have everything going for it as the Brazilian housing market is much different than that of the US. However, I got stopped out and have to sit on the sidelines until things shape up a bit better. But I do think there will be a chance to make 30 to 50% returns in GFA at some point over the next 12 to 18 months.
Zach
Zach, I agree on the performance. I took costs out in the $40s but a buy and holder would of not been happy.
The thing with Brazil is, when commodities sell off people sell EVERYTHING in Brazil. I do realize its a natural resource based economy but cmon now, houses are not going to stop being bought because crude fell $25. But this seems to happen to Brazilian stocks of all stripes.
It is simply not a buy and hold market. Only reason I made some coin on this one was that spike a few months ago where I sold off quite a bit, but I bought quite a bit of it back higher from where I cut back today. Still was able to walk away with a profit which in this day and age is rare.
I am trying to figure out which sacrificial lamb to sell so the market rewards us all and goes up. I've sacrificed many souls here of late. In fact I might be almost completely out of Brazil, after leaving India. And Russia. All I have left is China.
I think the market won't change until I sell Mosaic. ;) Bah!
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