Thursday, July 24, 2008

Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Gafisa (GFA) Sharply

I am continuing to raise cash in this brutal market.

Gafisa (GFA) is another favorite but it's chart is setting up a nice situation to take profits and buy back later on strength. It is trading in the mid $33s. You can see resistance all over the place in the mid $30s. So I'll be happy to pay "up" (pay a higher price) once Gafisa clears those resistance levels (traders above the moving average) - from where I am selling today that is less than 5% higher. That is a small price to pay right now - if the stock pulls back to upper $20s we could also buy back there. But right now we are in no man's land and with the stock jumping 20% from last week's low point I am going to scurry off like a rat with my crumb.

I am reducing Gafisa from a 1.8% stake to a 0.1% ("holding stake") with sales in the mid $33s.

There are some serious bargains being created now, but until the market turns rational I'll be piling up cash and hoping we don't fall under $10.00 NAV, where we started. Cripes. Even pawn shops are selling off and I don't believe they have any crude oil exposure? Gosh, even the wonderful banks are down - what has this world come to when banks aka the new bull market - sell off.

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