This is, once again, the EXACT same pattern we have detailed in the weekly overview and especially last Friday. You should recognize it by now - stock price broken below support, now drifting back upward to test previous support (now resistance). If it breaks through, fine - we'll miss a few points of upside. But I continue to marvel at how many charts both in the portfolio and my watch lists look like this. Which leads me to be anxious about both the stocks and the market as a whole. We'll cut back and re-assess when the chart either breaks down or strengthens. If we lucky and the market really tails off we might be able to pick this back up in the mid $30s where it has some old support levels. Not counting on it, but now that we are mostly out of it, I wouldn't mind. ;)
No change to fundamental story; on 2009 estimates of $5.61 (their year end is September 09, not December) the valuation is becoming absurd but this is not the first name I've written that about the past month. In 2002 nearly every stock had an absurd valuation.Long Atwood Oceanics in fund; no personal position
11 comments:
Hola amigo!
Back from Mexico. What a week I missed! MTL and CROX are getting hit hard with the ugly stick!
I wonder whether the same thing that is happening to MTL will happen to PBR. Government intervention is always the monkey wrench. Brazil is probably more trustworthy than Russia, but once the profits start coming in I could see an increased amount of taxes, cutting into EPS.
BD
Hi BD,
MTL is just a tragic shame. Such a promising company and they get punished for their capitalism and foresight.
I don't think Brazil will want to risk its new found countrywide upgrade in debt rating nor is its president (Lula) anything like Putin. He actually was thought to be like Obama when elected (damn left wing liberal who only loves union) but turned out to be a very pragmatic person.
If PBR's oil finds are anything as advertised there will be so much dinero to share, it won't matter ;)
Brazil is going to be hurt more by the thesis of if emerging market who do not have commodities (Chindia) slow, so will the ones with commodities (Brussia? Ruzil?) :)
As always the hedge funds overdo it, we will go from a great 10 year future to the end of days in terms of nothing will be built in this world blah blah. Just have to wait out their overreaction and try to start picking once they leave en masse.
Now if only my crystal ball could tell me exactly when that is!
On the topic of CROX, Mark, would you buy more puts on this dog? After Friday's selloff, I was expecting at least a small deadcat, but the shorts have the strong pimphand in this market. Also, I have puts on RSX and EWZ. Brazil's chart is parabolic, thus due for a reversion to the mean, and Russian crime and political chaos should be good for some more carnage in their markets. Thoughts?
Wez I have no opinion on CROX from here. It is dangerous - could be $2 in a week or two, or $8 with the right squeeze.
My style is to catch the middle of moves. Not the outside edges. That does not mean someone could short this from $5 to $0. If I caught that $10-$5 I'd be a happy camper and leave the rest to someone else. Just for me it's now prone to a snap back (not while the market is putrid like this) but I could see that sucker rallying 30% in 1 day at some point in the future - sort of like an airline or bank. So I'd toss that in there with UAUA or WM as "bad business" that could rip your head off if you stick around 1 day too long. :) But could be heading far far lower.
I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on Brazil - go to the 7/6-7/13 archive. Its called Hot Money Lures New Generation of Brazilian Investors ...
I wrote that once people are shown on covers of magazines grinning with boatloads of cash I get nervous. In fact much of that article sounded like USA 1999 or China 2006. i.e. euphoric. Love Brazil for a 10 year story - but as long as the thesis is global slowdown, then a commodity based economy will get pummeled by the hedgies in my opinion. But it will create some incredible values as a few of the best companies in the world reside there. It's all about time frame.
Good advice, must suck not being able to easily short stuff in your fund that you have high convictions will go down.
SKF has been very good on the financials actually - less individual risk and some great return
For the casinos, retailers, restaurants, and all the non discretionary I was pounding on in the fall, it's been a major hole - could of really goosed return if this was run as a long-short fund as the intent is. Especially this past year. But with the tools I have, I am happy and against 99.9% of funds who do no hedging, I don't understand why not. Even going to cash sometimes over 2% would be ok - they say "we are here to be invested not be in cash". I say "we are here to make money last I checked or at least lose less then the market" ;) Different psychologies I guess but they are successful at what they do so whom am I to argue. I don't have that luxury so performance is key.
So your only limitation is the software you use to run the portfolio does not allow shorting of individual positions or buying puts? We know guys like Heebner short, so it's obviously possible from standard fund managers. You're doing well buying those short ETFs though.
Marketocracy.com is similar to an IRA account - you can do the same things there you can do here. No options, no shorting.
Thank god I did not start this in 2001 when short ETFs were not around. :)
I'll have maximum flexibility once we are up for real. If that is a good or bad thing we'll have to see in a decade *grin* Sometimes too many choices are not necessarily good either.
As you know, just a reminder, you can do options in IRA accounts.
Sorry you are correct
I was thinking naked calls and puts
You can do covered stuff in an IRA account. No options at all in marketocracy.com so I suppose its not exactly the same.
Just means you performance will likely be better when you start the real thing. In some ways it's easier to pick shorts than longs. I think their is a natural bias in most investors to look only for reasons to buy. It's like playing the "don't pass" in Vegas, the herd likes to play the pass, even though the odds are better on the "don't".
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