Now as much as I like this story we see a potential top forming and everything good is to be sold in this trecherous market; all gains are erased quickly. So I'm taking this down to a 0.1% holding position and selling the remaining portion around $74. Frankly I didn't hold much since I sold on that spike to low $70s last week. And we will buy back on a pullback... or if the stock continues upward through the $75 level we'll buy on "technical" strength. Right now good results are not keeping stocks up for long so until that pattern changes we'll obey the markets wishes and sell strength.
So we got our pullback as the stock is in the $68s this morning where I am going to rebuy a solid stake here and take Cummins Engine back from a 0.1% stake to 1.5% . It could potentially go lower since there is a "gap" in the chart to fill in the mid $66s, but we made some decent change by exiting through the low to mid $70s and getting back in 5-8% lower. It doesn't sound like much but in this market where pulling teeth is the order of the day, it's something.
The overall market is shrugging off bad news for now so we have to look to be somewhat constructive...
Long Cummins Engine in fund; no personal position
3 comments:
MTL interesting comments by President Medvedev to Russian authorities " Stop Harrasing Businesses" DJN wires this am. Ahh isnt he a lackey of Putin? Stock up last couple of days. Maybe MTL is no Yukos, I went long yesterday.
Questions about Chinese demand for fertilizer, see Potash and Mos conference calls. China stores of SUlfur, DAP and Potash to be depleted by end of 08. China cut back in imports due to hurting local chemical compaines (protectionism). China demand to become much greater in 09. Mosaic slide presentation should be enough to allay fears. Also check out the hardassetinvestor.com, great website for commoditites info.
China has raised export tariffs through the roof so it stays in country.
Fertilizer will have another huge run sometime in 2nd half 2008. If its in 2 days, 2 weeks or 2 months I don't know. But it will come. We'll stock up after the first leg of that run. For now no reason to get antsy or keep excess amounts of exposure.
Export tariffs are north of 115%.
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