Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Bookeeping: Out Homex (HXM) In Cleveland Cliffs (CLF)

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I need to raise cash since I want to buy more Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) on this 10% drop - so I can either (a) liquidate some short exposure or (b) shuffle some exposure from 1 bucket to another on the long side.

Since I still don't see any signs of a real bottom, I've chosen the latter. Hard to pick what to sell, but in a pinch I've decided to close Mexican homebuilder Homex (HXM) right under $55 and roll the funds into Cleveland Cliffs in the $98s. The only risk I see to CLF here is a bidding war, but since this is not a hostile takeover and both boards have agreed to the deal perhaps another suitor won't be coming. Either way, CLF as a stand alone business is worth a lot more than these prices.

I sold the last 0.6% of portfolio stake in Homex at around $55, and rolled the entirety into Cleveland Cliffs in the $98s. Remember this fell to $85 in the panic selloff just last week, so there is potential for even better prices ahead. CLF is now back to a 2.3% stake.

As for Homex, we bought this in March at right around the same price it is today [Mar 7: Restarting Position in Mexican Homebuilder Homex Development (HXM)] No change of opinion on this name (still bullish) but without a real fund up and running and new investments coming in from shareholders, I have a closed system of dollars so something had to go.

There is just a ton of news today from CPI (still way understating reality but finally inching up) to Wells Fargo (best in breed in a terrible neighborhood) to the fight against short sellers to the rumors of Goldman causing run on banks with their "rumors" etc. Just no time to get to it all right now but this is one very interesting day, in a historical time in our markets.

[May 30: S&P on Homex]

Long Cleveland Cliffs in fund and personal account

4 comments:

Ben said...

Is Meena Polar going to get its name back?

TraderMark said...

No

They need to put 2 quarters back to back without reinventing the wheel and figuring out new ways to destroy shareholders money.

Then I'll upgrade it to its real name.

Harsh Nahar said...

TM,

Wondering why you wouldnt buy ANR on this news, if you like CLF. There is a huge arbitrage opportunity here assuming the deal gets done.

If the deal does does done, you get to own CLF, at a much lower cost basis and if there is a counter bid, then you benefit from that.

Just a thought.
Harsh

TraderMark said...

Harsh,

You are correct. I already have a sizeable stake in ANR but if I were coming to the trade today I'd be buying 100% ANR and 0% CLF based on the spread here.

The spread has also widened since I wrote the piece first thing in the morning. As ANR retreats its becoming the more attractive play

At ANR $104 vs $100 CLF, you go ANR no brainer

I believe when I wrote it, it was $118 ANR vs $98 CLF (still preferable to buy ANR at that point I understand from arbitrage)

Now, a no brainer.

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