Saturday, July 12, 2008

59 Stocks Returning 7% this Week

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A bit of an uptick in terms of the number of names this week versus the past 2-3. I've moved the market capitalization in our "criteria" down to $1.75 Billion in this constantly shrinking market. At the pace we're going I might need to move it down to $1.25 Billion soon as company values are slashed across the board.

Criteria
  1. Market capitalization $1.75B+
  2. Average trading volume 100K+
  3. Stock price $10+
  4. Returns 7%+
Green names we own, blue names we have owned in the past or discussed in the blog. We sold Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) this week into the rally. Rohm and Haas (ROH) was a takeover bid by Dow Chemical (DOW). As we discussed in the weekly performance entry, most of our performance this week was not really from any of the hedges, but a very nice rebound in our long positions, especially of the commodity type - that can be seen below in the numerous green shaded names. 3 of our top 4 holdings are in this list, and the 4th (A-Power Generation Systems) outperformed those 3 (+29% this week after a ridiculous selloff), but is of a far smaller size than the threshold we use here. This is why I keep saying, I really don't want to sell off what we own despite the potential for further melt down because these stocks are showing great strength in a poor market, which means once the market mood even turns from "putrid" to "dour" they should really perform.

In the smaller cap names (not on the list because they are below the market cap threshold), the next best two performers after A-Power were the 2 pawn shop/cash advance firms we highlighted this week. I almost pulled the trigger on a 3rd pawn shop operator, First Cash Financial Services (FCFS) as a "catch up" play to the two that guided up this week, but of course it ran up nearly 8% Friday - so obviously I am not the only one noticing this trend. Unfortunately my staff of 1 (and 10 hamsters) did not do the homework in time to catch that lift.

From the non holdings Schering Plough (SGP) is catching my eye - it seems everyone is screaming about it is time to buy healthcare as we enter (enter?) a recession, and this was a former holding for us that did not work at the time. But it seems to have picked up some steam here of late. Qualcomm (QCOM) continues showing the type of strength we normally associate with the Apples (AAPL) of the world - the chart is really firming up with higher lows each of the past 5 sessions - will have to think seriously about this name since we like to this type of action in a shoddy market. Flowserve (FLS) is one of the few ways to play "water" and is a de facto infrastructure play as well - one of the few "industrials" I really like along with our holding Cummins Engine (CMI).

Some of the names in this week's top perfromer list that we discussed -
  1. Continental Resources (CLR) [Jul 10: Bakken Shale Making More North Dakotans Rich - Continental Resources +20%]
  2. Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) [Jul 9: Cleveland Cliffs Up 15% on Guidance and Starting a Dividend]
  3. Sunpower (SPWR) [Jul 10: Well It's a Start - Sunpower to Build 2 US Solar Plants]
  4. Embraer (ERJ) [Jul 8: Has Embraer Hit Bottom?]
  5. Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile (SQM) [Jul 11: Let's Talk About Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile]
  6. Comstock Resources (CRK) [Jul 9: Haynesville Natural Gas Plays Refuse to Sell Off]
Symbol Company Name % Price Change 1 Week
ROH Rohm and Haas Co 65.8
APPX APP Pharmaceuticals Ord Shs 34.5
HPC Hercules Inc 29.6
CLR Continental Resources Ord Shs 20.4
FITB Fifth Third Banc Ord Shs 18.2
CLF Cleveland Cliffs Ord Shs 16.9
FLS Flowserve Corp 15.4
ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc 12.7
FFIV F5 Networks Inc 12.3
GOLD Randgold Resources ADR 12.1
CENX Century Aluminum Co 11.8
SPWR SunPower Corp 11.7
CF CF Industries Holdings Inc 11.7
BCE BCE INC 11.7
HUN Huntsman Ord Shs 10.9
ERJ Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica 10.9
WAB Wabtec Corp 10.7
YHOO Yahoo! Inc 10.4
MEE Massey Energy Co 10.1
GDI Gardner Denver Inc 10.0
FSLR First Solar Inc 10.0
DSX Diana Shipping Inc 9.9
EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group 9.8
QLGC QLogic Corp 9.7
TX Ternium SA 9.7
SFD Smithfield Foods Inc 9.4
MASI Masimo Corp 9.2
URS URS Corp 9.2
BLUD Immucor Inc 9.1
MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc 9.1
ABX BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION 9.1
LFC China Life Insurance ADR 9.1
YGE Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd 9.0
YZC Yanzhou Coal Mining ADR 9.0
SQM Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile ADR 8.8
BAK Braskem ADR 8.7
BTM Brasil Telecom ADR 8.7
BWP Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP 8.6
FLO Flowers Foods Inc 8.5
CRK Comstock Resources Inc 8.5
OMI Owens & Minor Ord Shs 8.4
GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd 8.4
ACH Aluminum Corporation of China ADR 8.2
PKX Posco Depository Receipt 8.1
LDK LDK Solar Co Ltd 8.0
PCX Patriot Coal Corp 7.9
CAG ConAgra Foods Inc 7.9
ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc 7.9
BUD Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc 7.8
PMTC Parametric Technology Corp 7.6
SGP Schering-Plough Ord Shs 7.5
LEAP Leap Wireless Ord Shs 7.4
RAI Reynolds American Inc 7.4
MMC Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc 7.3
QCOM Qualcomm Inc 7.3
SRCL Stericycle Inc 7.2
HCBK Hudson City Bancorp Inc 7.2
MOS Mosaic Co 7.2
ITC ITC Holdings Corp 7.1

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