Monday, June 30, 2008

Who Says Indexes are Not Performance Chasers?

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This really is beginning to remind me of the late 90s and technology when every index was in a hurry to stuff itself with tech stocks. Fresh off two of our holdings (natural gas and coal) being added to the S&P 500 [Jun 13: Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) and Massey Energy (MEE) Added to S&P 500] the Russell 1000 added "net" 8 energy companies, including 3 of our holdings - Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), and newly minted position Encore Acquisition (EAC). Another company Petrohawk Energy (HK) is one of the hottest stocks in the market as well. The Russell 1000, due to median size of companies we own, is what we mostly measure ourself against.
  • Ten companies in the "other energy" sector, which encompasses energy companies not considered integrated oil companies, are being to be added to the Russell 1000 in this year's reconstitution of the large-stock index, while 2 in the sector are being removed.
  • Alpha Natural Resources., Atwood Oceanics Inc., Encore Acquisition Co., Exterran Holdings Inc., Hercules Offshore Inc., Mariner Energy Inc., Oil States International Inc., Petrohawk Energy Corp. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. were added to the Russell 1000, all moving up from the small-stock Russell 2000.
  • Cheniere Energy Inc. and Western Refining Inc. were removed from the large-cap index and moved to the Russell 2000.
  • Tacoma, Wash.-based Russell Investments realigns the Russell 3000 index once per year, tracking what it maintains is 99 percent of the U.S. equity market. That index is then broken down to 26 smaller indexes, including the widely watched Russell 1000 index of large capitalization stocks.
Long Alpha Natural Resources, Atwood Oceanics, Encore Acquisition, Massey Energy, Cabot Oil & Gas in fund; long Alpha Natural Resources in personal account

6 comments:

Passionate Investor said...

hmm..goog, rimm, appl not participating in this modest rally..
have to cautious about tech..hmmm

TraderMark said...

Tricky situation right now. We are so oversold, and as I outlined earlier the most probable direction is a bounce off that huge support level, which in time will fail.

But the question is what rallies in the bounce - one could make a good case the worst of breed does. But impossible to tell until it happens.

GOOG is my tell right now for NASDAQ - it looks like a broken chart. But it did last quarter before an earnings report that destroyed shorts.

the hot sectors are so overbought and so full of people they get me very antsy. Hard to commit money to a place everyone is hiding.

Tricky, very tricky. I am hoping for a better bounce than this to re layer in so short exposure. I would doubt that is the last test of 1275. So far this is playing out textbook - so we'll see how far we can go on the bounce.

Passionate Investor said...

ya.SPY chart has a nice round top like Jeffy Macke's sloppy head.
looks like a inverted cup handle..we need the bounce for the formation of reverse handle and ultimately fail..
but too many people are expecting the washout below 1275..might delay the proces..yes..its tricky.
still hoping that "MA" to break that 270..hanging in there like a cliffhanger.

Dr. Baugus said...

HI
What is difference between the russell 2000, 1000, etc. I see youre short the REW. the Russell 2000 ..what is diff?
Thanks

Jerry said...

mark, any thoughts on Uranium price/nuclear power trend? CCJ is making good move. USU has doubled from its bottom. Your coal secular trend play is awesome. Coal stocks making new highs as indexes making new lows everyday. Could this Uranium be another secular trend?

TraderMark said...

Jerry, I get that question about once a week so I'll give my usual answer. In the long run Uranium should go up. But its more of a long long term play. Just getting a nuclear plant up and running takes many years so as people make the decisions now its going to take 4-8 years to get plants up. The sector has really underperformed this whole commodity move, but perhaps money will rotate into it as its been stronger the past month or so.

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