Weekend Stuff for Political Junkies

For any of you political junkies out there - here is an interesting site with analysis and compilations of all the polling - fivethirtyeight.com. Some good stuff.

Back when the blog started, and everyone was still talking about Iraq as "the issue" last summer and recession / inflation were laughable concepts in the mainstream, I predicted whomever came out of the Democratic side (at the time it was looking like a Hillary Clinton / Rudy Giuliani contest) would win in a landslide because by the time we got "here" to today, the economy would be degrading badly, and move to be the first, second, and third top issues. So it has become - Republicans, aside from Mike Huckabee, were not even addressing the economic "issues" of the middle class / lower class in the primaries until the last few debates.

With that said, John McCain is the least like the other Republicans so just from his "maverick" stance, if any Republican would have a chance - it would be him (ironic considering the "base" tried everything in their power to make sure he was not the candidate). I think if the Republicans threw out their typical candidate it would of been a 65-35% type of election. But since anyone within 10,000 yards of George W is affected by the association, short of a terrorist attack on US soil in the summer/fall - I just don't think McCain has a chance because this country is so desperate to try anything, something, to change directions (they seem to forget Democrats have been running the Congress the past 2 years, accomplishing nothing - just like their predecesors). Not that change for change sake helps much - and the main problem is the structure of politics which won't be changing. But what else can people try - if door #1 fails them, they will go to door #2. Then 8 years later that will fail them, and away we go.. :) By the time we get to November, the economy will be in worse shape than it is now - only helping Obama further.

According to the site Barack Obama is one pace to win 310 of the electoral vote to John McCain's 228. (the electoral college is so outdated) The popular vote is projected at 49.8% to 46.2% for Obama. In my view, and this site there are the 4 key swing states - Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Three of those states are suffering from a major recession either through manufacturing or housing or a combination of the two. At least PA has the natural gas exposure, but it is not exactly surging through an expansion ;) According to this site, they give FL to McCain and the other 3 to Obama. I think Obama could win all 4 as things degrade - although I would not be surprised to see McCain take on Florida Governor Charlie Crist as VP, and that would swing the state to him. On the website, they give Florida to McCain but recent polls show a very close race.

I will be very interested to see what way Obama goes with his VP - I think the safest choice but it won't win him a state is an ex general, since that eliminates the #1 criticism that Republicans can bring against him - national defense. That's one reason Jim Webb from Virginia (while not an ex general) is very much in the VP conversation. But conventional wisdowm is to take someone who will win a state for you. All 3 of the remaining 4 swing states have Democratic governors - although Michigan's is ineligible since she could not take over the Presidency being a non US born. (along with helping to run our state into the ground) Interestingly both the OH governor Strickland and the PA governor Rendell are big Hillary supporters so that would be quite the scenario if he took one of them on.

Total wildcards for Obama would be a Mike Bloomberg (who in theory could solve McCain's "lack of economic knowledge" weakness as well), and then the guy who I wish was running for President - Chuck Hagel. To reach across the aisle to tab a Republican would create scowls from Democrats but by gosh could there be any other better sign of trying to truly cooperate to solve our growing by the day problems? Well I can dream - but Hagel *is* lavishing praise on Obama.

"If you engage a world power or a rival, it doesn't mean you agree with them or subscribe with what they believe or you support them in any way," he said. "What it does tell you is that you've got a problem you need to resolve. And you've got to understand the other side and the other side has got to understand you." - Chuck Hagel

Note 1 - I'm for neither side and in fact believe there should be a lot more than '2 sides'. Government is by and large completely broken and far too big - I just hope for pragmatic worldy leaders who I could care less if I'd like to have a beer with, but who can actually solve problems. But I'm not holding my breath. Whoever gets elected has quite possibly the biggest mess ever - quite like our friend Uncle Ben inhereted from Uncle Alan G.

Note 2 - I get all my politicial information from The Daily Show ;)