What I'm looking for is something not named Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM) or Google (GOOG).... with the following features
- Not some tiny $500M market cap company that relies on 1 huge customer who in the blink of the eye can destroy the future with 1 decision to switch to a new vendor - I'd prefer something in the $1B to $30B size
- Not a "giant" like Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
- Not VMWare (VMW) - I know the story and know the risks
- Not Garmin (GRMN) - I know the story and know the risks
- Not Nokia (NOK) - I know the story and know the risks
- Not Salesforce.com (CRM) which I've been watching trade at 100 PE ratio for about 5 years now but it always executes ;)
- The more overseas sales the better
- Has a secular growth rate of at least 20-25% over coming 3-5 years (I'd prefer 30%+ but in technology its hard enough to find 25%)
- Has some barriers to entry in its space
Or, perhaps I'm looking for the unicorn - just a mythological creature that does not exist ;)
15 comments:
My picks:
I really like QCOM a lot, but since you asked for something smaller, I'll toss DLB into the hat. I wrote it up earlier in a few messages to you so I wont repeat.
I like the idea of DLB as well as it has a commanding market presence in its space, has little competitors, and should thrive over the coming years as it expands into all sorts of media entertainment. It also has some pretty good gross margins.
You might also want to look at QSII. It is a provider of health-care information systems to hospitals and other medical providers. It should be able to ride the wave of electronic medical record conversion in the coming years. I am not sure what their current growth rate is (probably not as high as the 30% or so), but their earnings can be lumpy from quarter to quarter as they sign contracts with new customers (kind of like your infrastructure plays). Their clients tend to be sticky due to the time and effort required to switch once the money has already been spent to install a software system.
CRNT, cell backhaul equipment mfr.
below facts are generalizations, but are essentially correct. do you homework.
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consider, for a moment, the explosion of smart phones, the increase of data being accessed on phones of all types, and the "all you can eat" data plans recently trotted out by all cell carriers....
did you know that (approximately) 30% of a cell carriers costs for a given call are moving the data that last mile to the tower?
currently, most cell towers' copper/T1/fiber leading to the tower are running at 100% capacity. what do you think the carriers/tower owners are going to do - lay more fiber to the tower? that is not feasible, as it will take years for city approval, and its really expensive and time consuming.
the backhaul space is cash money.
EMC compelling value; storage is where the internet is going with video. You get VMW's value as a bonus. Very undervalued and unappreciated.
ATVI
EMC
technically, I think it bottomed arounfd 14, and from an Elliott Wave point of view, I think it will make a new high
might be going out on a limb here but INFN, TDC, maybe CTXS.
then i don't consider satellite to be tech so much, but if you really want to stretch it then lots of hedge funds been picking up positions in DTV DISH and SATS.
got all those names from the hedge fund tracking series i've been writing about. so since some funds are already in those names, they'll prob spread the word to other funds and maybe they'll flock, who knows.
Consider NVDA
check out ADBE, NVDA and RFMD. EMC maybe, but spiked up last week on takeout chatter. If you do want a lg cap tech name, try AMAT - great value under $20 and their solar biz growth potential is greatly underappreciated
DLB - good idea, but maybe expensive based on P/E? what about VSH?
Visa (V) --- Tech/Finance/Data processing, recession proof...bright future.
AKAM - expensive stock but attractive business. The chart looks fairly bullish to me, it's been in a very wide trading range consolidating for most of the last year. I think it's going to fill that gap up to 46 by the end of the year, but it's going to be a bumpy ride.
NYX fits your criteria, but it's lumped in with the financials rather than tech (which it is). NYX in the 55's presents a good risk-reward, but there's been a lot of pain involved in owning this stock. I'm speaking from experience here... ;)
BD
I like ZBRA. The company is engaged printing technology for bar code labeling, RFID smart labels, etc. Good position to benefit from global trade.
I like EMC as well. range from 15-20. Early next year if they sell VMware to Intel or Cisco they will be able to unlock all of that cash they have in VMW. ADBE is nice too. Very cool technology. I also like Intel in the long run. Their new chip Atom is going to be a big hit for mini-notebooks, and they are going to have six core by January, way ahead of AMD. IBM is always a safe bet as well.
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