Friday, June 13, 2008

Petrobras (PBR) First Ethanol Mill / Pipeline Ready in 2009

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Ken Heebner of CGM Funds was on CNBC again this morning, and again focused on Petrobras (PBR) which we are now both saying has a chance to become the largest company (by market capitalization) in the world. Once again sugar cane ethanol gives much more bang for the buck than lousy corn ethanol, so the export market for this product should be substantial. (note the US has very high tariffs on imported ethanol to PROTECT the corn ethanol business - another in countless bright ideas coming from D.C.)

I've been adding to this position of late in small increments as it pulls back to its 50 day moving average (mid $60s); but I wouldn't mind seeing a drop back down to the mid $50s to create a larger stake. Again, this is not a fast money type of stock but should deliver solid 15-20% type of growth for a decade or two in my opinion - hence why it should get to #1 in the world...
  • Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras said it will complete its first of two ethanol-only pipelines and first ethanol mill in 2009, a company official said on Thursday.
  • It will be Petrobras' first step into ethanol production although the company for decades has been a leading player in Brazil's distribution and retail of the biofuel.
  • Petrobras (PBR) said it signed its first contract in May with a local ethanol company to build a distillery that will come on line next year and produce biofuel that will be directed to the export market.
  • The first one, to be concluded in 2009, would run between the center-west state of Goias and Paulinia, in Sao Paulo state. Petrobras also plans to build a second pipeline between the center-west state of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paranagua port, in the southern state of Parana.
  • The pipelines aim to improve efficiency and reduce producers' costs in transporting ethanol to the ports from Brazil's countryside.
  • Brazilian producers believe external sales will grow in coming years as more countries adopt the sugar cane-based biofuel as an alternative to fossil fuel.
  • Petrobras has plans to export 4.7 billion liters of ethanol per year from 2012. To achieve this goal, the company intends to sign a total of 20 contracts with local ethanol groups and build several of distilleries in partnerships.
  • About $200 million will be invested in the first plant, whose output is expected to reach 200 million liters per year.
[May 15: Petrobras Hordes the World's Deep Sea Oil Drillers]

Long Petrobras in fund; no personal position


4 comments:

Wei said...

Mark, PBR-A is trading less than PBR shares, do you think it’s better to buy the A shares? Thanks.

TraderMark said...

Yes if you believe the discount closes.

All you lose are voting rights with the A's. Right now the market is saying that is worth $11-$12. It could be the same discount in a decade or the gap could close - no idea on that.

yayankee said...

Heebner is very good. Can the CNBC crew ever shut up and let the guess finish his thoughts. He was going to dampen the upside on POT, as you did recently, and he was going to expound further on PBR, but to no avail.

I would have liked them to ask if he has added any new positions, i.e., Nat Gas.

j. / marketfolly said...

yea PBR really will be a behemoth of a company in the future, and it already is pretty damn big. step in the right direction for them here considering what brazil is up to with ethanol too. can't go wrong with buying shares

perfect pullback on the chart too (50 day ma & recent peak of 65 in mid april... past resistance now future support)

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