- Research in Motion (RIMM) in $124s - believe this should get to $120 but I had a 0.1% stake so taking it up to 0.4% (almost too small to mention this purchase) I'll add more increments around $120.
- DR Horton (DHI) in $11.90s - we sold this yesterday in the $13.30s so we got a 10.5% discount in 24 hours. Simply replacing (most of) what I sold yesterday. Back to 2.1% stake.
- Jacobs Engineering (JEC) - fallen to 200 day moving average of $83 and down from $91s last week. Back up to 1.0% of fund.
Doesn't look like the commodity plays will be selling off today so I don't see anything interesting there at this point. Not much else on my buy list today that is near targets I want to buy... DryShips (DRYS) perhaps.
Keep in mind when these dramatic selloffs reverse the action is fast and furious the other way as shorts scramble to cover but its still within a larger downtrend - so no need to try to constantly catch bottoms. But right now its a tale of 2 markets - one very narrow group of winners and a whole bunch of losers - this has been the story the entire month of June.
1 PM EDIT:
- Mastercard (MA) - added at $270 level; up to 1.0% of fund. Gap to be filled in $240s where I really want to add...
3-3:20 PM EDIT:
- Reversed part of today's Perfect World (PWRD) buy - as I proposed, nothing is really holding up in this sort of selling and the stock reversed itself below resistance after making a valiant effort to make a run. Will catch her the next time around.
- Bought some Goldman Sachs (GS) in the $175s - simply believe financial sellers will be exhausted first and rotation will continue if past patterns hold out. Stock hovering right below 50 day moving average and showing great strength for a "financial". Goldman up to 2.0% stake.
- Bought some Cummins Engine (CMI) in the $66s as stock fills a gap from mid June. Stock approaching 50 day moving average in $65s. We had this down to a placeholder position (0.1% of fund) so taking just a first bite at it, and pushing it up to 0.7%
12 comments:
When you said altenative energy, were you considering ENER?
Correct me if I'm wrong, as you watch alot more stocks and sectors than I do, but is the narrow bunch of winners getting more and more narrow each week?
I'm noticed that the Ags and coal were still up earlier (down a little now) but DUG and SMN are finally not sore spots in my portfolio anymore.
If this doesnt reverse, then we could get that waterfell selloff next week. Are there any catalysts that might be an 'excuse' to do exactly that?
A big spiek in VIX is still not seen and that means that we are still away from the bottom! Tommorow the market will open high, and thats a great oppy to go short for a quick trade!
Agree? ;)..
gamer,
I think I missed that train until it comes substantially lower. I know no one cares about valuation in that stock but anything more expensive than FSLR on 09 earnings is not my cup of tea. if it gets back to $50s? Then yes. $80s? Not so much. We always have to think of future appreciation. Sure ENER can go to $100... but on hope and hype. Not on valuation.
Jeff, actually been the same group - nat gas, energy, ag, coal. Pretty much all month. Some are reversing now but they've been showing topping pattern since Friday. Yesterday afternoon they got reprieve but toppings are a multi-day event, and only when "buy the dip" bulls are pummeled in those stock do they give up the ghost. Sadly )almost) nothing else is working in this market this month, so people keep running to these same groups. Its been a bear market for anyone else.
Pankaj,
We'd like to see >30 VIX which occured in Jan and March and Aug 07. Still in 23 range.
If 1270 breaks on S&P, you will see panic.
Gamer, I have 2 names in mind but they are speculative
1 I have been tracking for 6 weeks and its up from 23 to 42 and now pulling back a little.
Let me say I am not easily peeved but I am very peeved I did not jump on that one.
The other is more speculative, similar to AMSC but even more "chancy".
I don't want to mention them because they are small caps..
But I can make a nice 3 position "speculative alternative energy" basket if the other 2 retreat as I hope. Then if 1 implodes it's ok ;) The one that has run the most is the one I am most confidant in... but I was greedy waiting for a pullback.
looks like "ma" broke descending triangle pattern. hope it fills that huge gap in 240s
great timing - you are ready to work on my virtual staff :)
I just updated a small purchase there. Looking for $240s gap myself for a real purchase.
Good eyes.
updated means = kept a limit order at 240s?
No, I bought a tiny patch here around $270, 0.7% to 1.0% of fund. Will be making a larger buy when/if $240s come. I scale in and out and don't try to hit exact bottoms or top because I almost never hit them. $240 might not be a bottom - for all we know it could be $150! :)
what about GFA, that's had a pretty good pull back...
Yes quite the pullback. Problem is Brazil is everyones golden child right now so the market could still be hit there and take GFA with it. Going to be a bit more greedy and see if I can get something closer to $30 - I also already have a substantial position (nearing 2%) unlike other names that I cut back more severely.
GFA chart is worrisome breaking the 200 day.. I'd like to see it bounce back over $35.50 and/or fall harder into the $30-$33 range. Sort of no man's land here in $34s. Waiting for direction...
yup my order hit at 270 for MA as well. was down as much as 7.5% today. have other orders at 260 and 240.
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