Other than some short covering in the last hour or Plunge Protection Team action it doesn't look good for the bulls...
Adding back some short exposure here that I had lightened up on midweek expecting some cursory bounce... we got just a few pathetic attempts. Still focusing short on the strongest stuff in a very contrary move...
Commodities STILL holding up... if we wash down, I think that finally ends, as people start fleeing to the sidelines. That would fit our "pattern" rotational correction to the tee. It seems too good to be true if it plays out that way - but here is to hoping ;) We'll keep the watch - I just think its easier to be short the stuff that is extended than the stuff that has been hammered relentlessly for 3 weeks in a row.
Time to buy? No. Generals (strongest groups) have not been shot and/or I don't feel like heaving. Both of those would signal a better time to buy. We won't catch the very bottom but we want to start layering in when we are looking in the general direction of a garbage can to deposit our lunch....
The "2nd half recovery" is just weeks away. Somehow the stock market lost the message that the pundits have been pounding into the table for 6+ months. 1325 is key. Perhaps Uncle Ben can soothe the market next week with his magic wand. After all he will be 'fighting inflation' with 2 new sentences in the Federal Reserve statement. Those better be some powerful words...
Note: We can never rule out a crazy last 30 minute rally courtesy of the Invisible Hand - for those with short memories remember that 0.6% index spike last week in the closing minutes Friday? (which was of course negated by the free market in the first hours Monday) Free market versus socialized market - we shall see who wins out, but to make appearances look "better" than they are - always be open to something crazy happening. In a free market, I'd expect panic selling into the close as people fear Monday morning - but this has not been our market for a long time.... we'll be open to any conclusion to the day and be surprised by nothing. It would serve us all better if "they" just allowed the market to settle where it belongs, washes out the pain in a quick fashion - instead we get this band aid ripped out over and over...
Short pundits; short all the US pesos we devalued just to keep this from happening sooner and inflating every asset in the world in the meantime; pummeling middle and lower class worldwide.
7 comments:
Hey mark, what short positions are you adding?
I closed out SRS and SCC. Not sure if I should add some or not.
Thanks.
Mostly TWM but I added a little bit to everything except ironically the most hated - SKF. I think we have to be approaching the 8th inning or so on that one, but could be wrong. Perhaps all these banks go to $0 and we're left with Goldman and JPMorgan only hah.
adding? but I have been selling into this short rally all day; counting on the invisible hand to provide reload in the last few minutes
Remember, I took off some short exposure around 1325 yesterday looking for at least some bounce. All we got was some of that nonsense in the afternoon that was not much.
So I am basically getting some of that back.
Invisible Hand is always probable. But at times they get overwhelmed. Let's see 3:30 to 4:00 PM when they do their work what happens. Any close below 1325 is bearish.
The question is will longs throw in their towel fearing Monday?
if you turn the S&P chart upside down what do you see? it would be a buy buy buy chart. So what does it mean right side up. The opposite.
Last 30 minutes will be key. Get your popcorn ready
Mkt is oversold again after today..
I some hedge funds leaked "Israel might bomb Iran" news to spike up oil today. Has anyone looked into futures trading and these commemnts?
For a minute there I thought they would really close us over the 200sma on the weekly.
Silly me.
2 previous breaks in 08, and a series in 04 were restrained to a matter of days or less.
Last time it wasn't short lived was March 2001. If we don't rally right quick next week, I'll be taking that as a strong sell signal even if we don't fall much either.
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