Monday, June 9, 2008

Apple (AAPL) Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?

Let me preface this by saying I'm a big fan of Apple (AAPL) as a stock and innovator. But I am wondering if we are setting up for the classic buy the rumor, sell the news with the Apple developers conference beginning today and the anticipated introduction of the 3G iPhone.

  • June has arrived and for Apple Inc fans and investors that means just one thing -- a new iPhone. The encore to the original iPhone, which launched nearly a year ago amid unprecedented industry buzz, is widely expected to be the main attraction when Chief Executive Steve Jobs takes the stage at Apple's developers' conference on Monday.
  • The new iPhone will be accompanied by support for corporate e-mail and a slate of new programs that could help boost sales of the devices, which sport a touch-sensitive screen, wireless Internet access and iPod-style media functions.
  • Apple has declined to comment on what Jobs will announce, but analysts are betting he will show off a long-rumored phone running on a so-called 3G, or third-generation, network.
  • There is also speculation Apple could bow to a cellphone industry practice and offer a subsidized iPhone, an arrangement where AT&T could kick in a couple hundred dollars to make the devices more affordable. AT&T already gives Apple a slice of the monthly service fees it gets from iPhone subscribers.
  • "We think that actually Apple could talk about a very disruptive business model, or a change in their business model, embracing subsidies where necessary, multiple carriers to help get the iPhone into more hands," Lehman Brothers analyst Ben Reitzes told a conference call last week.
Don't look now but this chart has all the makings of a double top. I can't short individual names, but this might be a short term short, at least until the $160-$170 range.... in lieu of that I have just cut back the long position, awaiting lower entry points to rebuy. We'll see if I get one.

[Apr 23: Apple Nice Solid Result]

Long Apple in fund; no personal position

1 comments:

marketfolly said...

yea AAPL is a sell the news name if i've ever seen one. especially at that conference/presentation they hold in january every year. stocks runs up to the event and then sells off on the news (confirmation of whatever the rumors were).

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