Thursday, June 19, 2008

Alert - China Begins to Increase Fuel Prices

TweetThis
This is what we've been looking for.... earlier than anticipated; I don't know the "degree" of this yet in terms of a percent increase... still looking into it.
  • U.S. crude futures tumbled sharply after news that China will raise gasoline and diesel prices.
  • China will boost retail gasoline and diesel prices by 1,000 yuan ($145.5) per tonne from Friday, the first increase in eight months, industry sources told Reuters.
EDIT: Readers emailing me this is about a 20% increase - so this puts China at around $3.00ish on gas so roughly 30% below America and "a lot more" below various European countries.

This makes us incrementally bearish on "energy" complex for the medium term. Once this energy trend reverses, I do believe the correction could be quite nasty. The higher we go the more painful the reversion will be... (but energy is going up in the "long" term) - just believe at this time it's ahead of itself. Still believe China will be buying crude on open market to store up for Olympics but Chinese consumers finally should begin to see some demand destruction. Enjoy your new cars fellas!?

Long Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) in fund and personal account

6 comments:

sdk_IV said...

FYI: I believe CNBC mentioned that it would amount to a 20% increase.

sdk_IV said...

So here's the data:

China Government says gasoline, diesel prices to rise by 17-18% - DJ

China Government says jet kerosene prices to increase by 25% - DJ

China fertilizer production exempt from energy price increase - Bloomberg

TraderMark said...

Thanks sdk

That should get them in the upper $2s range, or about a 30% discount to America and a 60% discount to Europe ;)

doug said...

Buy Petro China now

TraderMark said...

Good point

also SNP

both have been getting destroyed in their refining business. SNP is actually the bigger refiner I believe. Both up 6-7%+

AsterixTheGaul said...

I don't know about a prospective correction in the oil stocks. There may be a small one, but the contrarian in me says *everyone* now expects a severe correction. It seems too easy, too anticipated. Plus a lot of the charts of the oil companies are technically looking pretty good.

Post a Comment

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.


Site by codeeo
Original WP Premium theme by WP Remix