May Update - Top 10 Winners & Losers

Previous editions can be found

1. March 16
2. December 18

Here is our every so often look at best and worst contributors to the fund; as long as the top group in aggregate is larger than the bottom group we should be in good shape.

On the winning side, the top 10 list is similar in composition to the last time we looked 6 weeks ago, except a lot more coal names populate the bottom end of the list. If I only held 1-2 coal stakes instead of 4-5, those 1-2 would be near the top of the list but since my gains are spread over a bevy of names, they are lower on the list. But as a sector bet it's been a great situation. Up to today, Ultrashort Financial (SKF) was still the 2nd best performer, but she got whacked by a baseball bat today. CF Industries (CF) is a position I was severely underweight for this past 40%+ run, so most of its gains are from last fall when it briefly held the #1 position in the fund.... I missed it this time around. Mosaic (MOS), while wonderful, I also missed a lot of profit potential because I was cautious going into it's earnings and was very underweight. Much of this was again cautious behavior on my part, which cost us some upside but has kept us out of any major blowups. Mastercard (MA) despite usually hanging around as a 1-1.5% stake continues to climb this list. I've given back about 8K worth of gain in Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) as the "hedge" has reversed. After all, all is fine in commercial real estate...

Falling off the list has been Ultrashort Xinhau China (FXP) as that Shanghai index, after a 50% fall has rebounded some (taking its US listed counterparts up) - I am actually developing a bullish thesis for China going into Olympics and after this massive haircut, and also Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) - after all April 2008 was a huge month for the market (up). All my Chinese mid caps have had such huge runs... I don't want to chase them but we have some huge % winners in these names the past few weeks, but not a lot of money thrown in their direction.

Top 10 Winners
Mosaic (MOS) +51.1K - fertilizer
CF Industries (CF) +30.3K - fertilizer
Ultrashort Financial (SKF) +27.1K
Potash (POT) +22.2K - fertilizer
Consol Energy (CNX) +16.9K - coal
Mechel (MTL) +16.7K - steel/coal/iron
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) +14.4K
Mastercard (MA) +11.1K - credit cards
Massey Energy (MEE) +10.0 - coal
Peabody Energy (BTU) +9.8K - coal

On the losers side, I hope TMA is never surpassed as the biggest loser and permanently holds that #1 spot. My 2 major solar stakes still show a sizable loss at 28K combined but that is down from 42K the last time we looked - we've been able to squeeze some good gains out of them, especially Trina Solar (TSL) in the past 4 weeks. Every other name in the top 10 is out of the portfolio with Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) being booted earlier this week. Ironically these fallen angels are showing a lot of positive movement of late or on days like this (for example the 2 networking stocks) - I guess the idea is with the economy "improving" there are no future worries in these sectors anymore. NII Holdings (NIHD) has been on a straight 45 degree angle up since its last earnings where it finally seemed to calm fears; that said I last sold it in the upper $40s in January and it continued on to fall to $30 (now has rebounded back to $46).

Falling off this list from last time around are Apple (AAPL) which turned from a $7K loss (I had a big stake going into it's January earnings report) and Mercadolibre (MELI) which went from a $7K loss to near flat.

Top 10 Losers
Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) -25.6K - high end mortgages
LDK Solar (LDK) -16.3K - solar
Trina Solar (TSL) -12.4K - solar
Riverbed Technology (RVBD) -11.0K - networking
MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA) -9.5K - mortgage REIT
Crocs (CROX) -9.0K - plastic shoes
NII Holdings (NIHD) -8.1K - cell phone
Solarfun (SOLF) -6.6K - solar
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) -6.1K - infrastructure
Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) -6.1K - networking