Friday, May 2, 2008

Bookkeeping: Taking more Profits out of Gafisa (GFA)

Posted by TraderMark at 9:37 AM TweetThis
Gafisa (GFA), right near $50, has now increased 31.5% since my purchase Monday [Bookkeeping: Adding Gafisa]. I won't be a pig and I'm going to cut the rest of my position (@ $49.60) in half, taking Gafisa down to a 0.6% stake. Certainly it could run farther but I never expected this sort of short term move... I'll be buying on pullbacks but with such a strong move the pullback will need to be material.

I took some off the table in the $43s way back... Wednesday [Taking some Gafisa off the Table] at which time I wrote

I will let more go north of $45 if we get there.

Mission Accomplished. (also closing my personal stake)

Long Gafisa in fund; no personal position

Posted by TraderMark at 9:37 AM Comments (4) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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4 comments:

Wan said...

you have big bet on
FWLT 3.0%. Is there an earning risk here like CBI?

May 2, 2008 12:17 PM  
TraderMark said...

Yes
I took a bit off today. Earnings next week.

If it was just CBI I would be ok, but we had both CBI and MDR screw up.

Now the question is, FWLT has very low expectations since they were hammered on their last earnings. If you look at companies with low expectations - ie. restaurants or retailers - as long as they say they plan to be in business for another 3 quarters their stocks g up 20% overnight. So the wildcard is I don't know the expectation level for FWLT... it might be very low.

It also has already sold off hard on the CBI shrapnel. But I did take a bit off today; if it pops going into earnings I'll probably take a bit more off going into earnings.

My holdings in the right tab are not real time - sometimes they have 2-3-4 day lag... just fyi.

May 2, 2008 12:23 PM  
Risk Manager Jeff said...

That sector is just acting really bad. Perhaps smaller firms supporting these larger ones, are having problems with credit, and the effect is trickling in, in one way or another. I wouldnt be surprised if that were true for projects in europe or the US. Either that, or it's perception. But the sector has had more blow ups than in really should. They may also be having raw cost/labour problems. I know BUCY had that problem, but for them, the bulk of future demand is still to be contracted.

I don't want to bet against the industry, but I'm hesitant to put on positions of significance. I actually think that they will do better, in the late part of a early cycle rally, as that would cut down on the 'perception' problem. (regardless if it is true or not)

May 3, 2008 11:26 AM  
TraderMark said...

Well most have high concentration of customers in Far East or Middle East where credit is no needed; i.e. they actually have cash.

May 4, 2008 1:29 PM  

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