Ok I've tried to let my winners run as much as possible (always harder to sell than to buy in my opinion) but I can hear them cleaning up the spot behind the woodshed...tiding it up... cleaning up the limbs they took off from the solar group today.... our friend to the right has been waiting impatiently for 2.5 months to have his time with the commodities...So I am going to cut my top coal position with the last layer out @ $77s range, and sell down Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) down to a 1.0% stake. I've cut most of my other coal names in layers earlier, and this is as low as I'm going to go, while recognizing many stocks could (when the sector corrects) easily drop 20-25%. But I never go to 0% allocations in names/sectors I like... again, I *want* this sector to correct meaningfully; I've been amazed at the relentless move. As the chart shows, this stock can drop 20 points and still be in a primary uptrend. I hope it does :)
As we discussed in the weekly round up, after such a sell off last week it would be typical for the market to make some sort of bounce and some of the most bloodied from last week (financials, retailers) to lead the way. That's the silliness we've seen much of this week. Although there is no rhyme or reason even from this ; they were up Tuesday, sold off yesterday, back up today. It's just a bunch of churning and direction-less right now - a market that does not know what to do with itself or where it should be going... hope or fear. At times like this its worthwhile to have a good cash stake until the market marks a clear trend. We sit with 25% cash. Any market being led by the trash sectors, in the early stages of recession.... err mild slowdown a few weeks away from a 2nd half recovery... is not a market I want to be overexposed to. It's just not a believable group of stocks to hitch your train to for more than a few days trade. Yes I know... as gasoline drops from $4.00 to $3.65 the consumer will come roaring back... don't bother CNBC, I already have the script written.
Long Alpha Natural Resources; no personal position
2 comments:
I appreciate your trading discipline. Any thoughts on the gold stocks?
Not been following too close since selling off Kinross
It appears oil is the new gold (store of value in chaotic times) since it has more applications?
With inflation high worldwide you'd think it would be acting better. The action is not so great - it looked like it was breaking out 4 days ago and has since collapsed.
What do you think about them? At this point i think the US peso is an easier play for safety.
Post a Comment