Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Bookkeeping: Cutting Most of 3 Positions on Huge Runs

Much like I did with Ctrip.com (CTRP) last week [May 2: Cutting Ctrip.com to Almost Nothing] I am going to cut these 3 positions to almost nil; they are small positions at this time as I cut them at lower prices, but the gains (% wise) have been huge, and the stocks are not near any major support. Fundamentals remain strong in all the stocks so there is no change in that area. Further, this does not mean the stocks need to pullback anytime soon but consistent with my strategy, I am simply going to take the last of these gains off the table and wait for meaningful pullbacks, after some staggering moves. These positions are in the 0.5-0.7% range of the portfolio, so I am essentially dropping them to what I call "holding positions" aka tiny positions (0.1% or 0.2%), but not selling them out of the portfolio.

Technical traders who like buying "strength" would do the complete opposite of what I am doing, and in fact be buying these charts (I guess every trade needs a buyer and a seller)... I cannot argue with that strategy; I am just more conservative and when I see charts this extended, while I respect the stocks can continue up indefinitely I am going to take my marbles and go home, willing to leave some on the table. Frankly the first 2 names, I have no way to value at these prices since the P/E ratios, P/S ratios and the like are off the charts... so I simply go off technicals...

I am continuing to build cash reserves...back up to 17.5%. Adding some incremental short exposure here as well, to begin balancing out the fund a bit more.

Mercadolibre (MELI) @ $56s (up 35% in 5 weeks)



Baidu.com (BIDU) @ $377s (up 36% in 5 weeks)



Dryships (DRYS) @ $95.80 (up 40% in 5 weeks)



Long all names mentioned in fund; no personal positions

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