"Value players" will take the exact opposite tact to me, and be buying these charts when I am selling, but I'd rather focus on stocks on clear upswings. It's just a trading style, and money can be made in various ways (buying CBI in the $38s would of proven to be very fruitful for value types) With SGR there is a lot of resistance in the mid $50s; for the technical condition to signal "clear sailing" we've have to trade back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages which is going to take a lot of work. Again, "value investors" would treat this different and in fact be building positions down here, waiting patiently for the market to reward the inherent value of the stock - which could come in days, weeks, month, or a year. I don't know. But I'd rather have the money working for us somewhere or sitting in US pesos waiting the next opportunity.
Since the chart broke down I've held very little Shaw Group (SGR) but am exiting the last measly 10 shares today. This was one of those "holding positions" (tiny positions waiting for a technical condition to improve) but the stock failed twice in April in attempted breakouts - hence, dead money. Below is a 6 month chart and obviously the stock has not been reacting very well, so I am exiting with a $4000 loss. I've held this name since fund inception, but don't have near term conviction to add more and the chart does not call for adding more. As I said above, I could see either of these names returning to the portfolio in the future.
No position
2 comments:
News of interest:
■ Sinofert Holdings Ltd., China’s largest distributor of imported fertilizers, said last week that China could have a shortfall of up to a quarter of its total demand of 11 million to 12 million tonnes of potash this year. Therefore, Sinofert hopes to sign an import agreement much earlier in 2009 to secure supplies of the nutrient, the company’s senior vice president, Harry Yang, told Reuters in an interview last Tuesday.
■ “We expect the tight supply of potash around the world to remain in 2009. We will try to secure our 2009 import contracts at an early date,” Yang said. “Our bargaining power has weakened a lot this year,” Yang added.
Yep, I believe the Potash CEO Doyle said they only gave China a fraction of what they needed this year. That is why India jumped in life to negotiate this year.
Next year should be an all out bidding war ;)
China and India clobbering each other over the head to get first in line.
Should be a few more good years until these new potash mines start getting going circa 2011-2013.
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