Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Bookkeeping: Closing FTI Consulting (FCN)

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I'm closing a smallish position in FTI Consulting (FCN) just under $62. I started this stake in November 2007 [Nov 27: 2 New Recession Plays] and I still like the thesis and this company specifically long term; even if the Wall Street Journal does not [Apr 28: Wall Street Journal does not like FTI Consulting] - I continue to believe this name will churn out 20% solid returns for the long run as it is becoming a gorilla in it's space. But it is (and has been for a long while) richly valued and with a growth rate of 20% or so, I am not sure what the upside is. Or put another way, I think I can find more upside in some of my other ideas.

Further, this allows me to continue to streamline my long positions - while the position created some balance in the portfolio away from global growth/commodity stories - I've purchased other stocks to replicate that exposure in the meantime. So this decision is nothing against the company itself which simply executes quarter after quarter. I could see a return to the portfolio at some point in the future; and the firm's niche consulting business should prosper in the weakening economy of latter 2008, 2009.... err, I mean the booming recovery of latter 2008, 2009.

Since Thanksgiving, I've managed to lose $300 on this name :) - which in the scheme of things means flat / dead money. The chart below showcases this flattish behavior (with many ups and downs along the way). I would not be surprised to see this stock retreat to its 200 day moving average nearer to $57; the chart seems to be whispering this to us.

Adios.

No position


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