Monday, May 26, 2008

Best Performing Stocks Year to Date

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Since we have a break in the action here, instead of doing our normal best performing stocks of the week (not many made the list this week due to a poor market), this is a good time to look at what is performing best so far this year. Further, due the composition of the list and with many of these stocks due for a correction it's probably worthwhile to take a look now, as things might change relatively soon. We looked at a similar list in early November [Nov 4: How to Make 75% in 3 Months] when the list was dominated by large cap Chinese stocks, a few big cap tech stocks, Indian stocks, and fertilizer. Except for fertilizer most of those groups stunk for the better part of the following 5 months, and hence "returned to the mean". However, the list did turn out a few gems we jumped on, so looking at such lists helps us to identify what has been working and what other people are interested in that we might be missing.

Frankly, as I look through this list I feel very content with our stock selections over the past 5 months - we own 3 of the top 12. I've also said a few times coal would be the next fertilizer (as the next "big investing theme") but you never can time these things exactly and while I thought it would play out in latter 2008 or early 2009, the trend is already here - 4 of the top 5 names year to date are coal stocks.

A few other key sectors have been ... well, anything energy related, especially natural gas and land drillers (who had been previously missing out on the entire energy rally due to overcapacity)... Brazil also dominated, as did steel (iron ore and metallurgical coal being offshoots of steel). Lower in this entry, I've highlighted some posts on some of the individual companies or sectors at the top of the list, as we've been talking about them for quite a while.

As always the criteria for this list are
  • Market capitalization $2 Billion+
  • Average trading volume 100K+
  • Stock price $10+
And added to those criteria I've listed every stock returning 25%+ year to date - the list is 122 stocks long. We own 17 of them; considering we generally only hold 50-55 long positions, this means roughly a third of our positions made the list. I'll take that all year, every year. (please note some stocks we bought during calender 2008 so we have not enjoyed the full gain listed below - however many we bought during the panic of March 2008 - i.e. the "Bear Stearns bottom" so we might have gotten even better prices than if we had bought on Jan 1, 2008)

Green shaded are names we've owned during calendar 2008, and blue are names we've discussed, or in some cases readers have mentioned (i.e. hey TraderMark you fertilizer lover - why don't you buy SQM!). Keep in mind I don't discuss every stock in every sector i.e. there are a good 9-10 coal stocks out there, I tend to discuss 4-5 on a normal basis; same for natural gas or energy/exploration companies. Same with the countless "energy" names.

What' missing? Despite all the hubbub about the "bottom is in financials - if you don't buy you're going to miss the huge move!!" - not one single financial made the list (unless you consider Mastercard a "financial") - only 3 retailers made the list - two of which that thrive on the pooring of America - Big Lots & Dollar Tree, and most homebuilders at this point have lost so much market capitalization (size) they no longer even qualify for such a list. So "bottom fishing" is not in fashion despite all the cries from the pundits that you should be doing it. A lot of fingers have been sliced off trying to "catch knives".

Also to the surprise of many I am sure will be the lack of solar stocks and dry bulk shipping stocks. These stocks have had an immense run of late, but took staggering losses in the first quarter of the year, so are just making up lost ground. Due to their extreme volatility I have a hard time putting these type of positions at the top of our portfolio as opposed to say a fertilizer or coal exposure. But they do make excellent trading vehicles to help us turbocharge returns - but timing is everything; it is very easy to lose 30% in 2 weeks with these names due to the nature of (ahem) "investors" who likes these stocks. But hopefully over time more stable institutional money will move into these sectors creating at least some basic form of stability.

Here are some highlights if you are new to the blog and did not see when we discussed some specific names at the top of the list. I just picked a representative sample for each - most aside from WLT, and CMP have been discussed numerous times. Again, I still like all these groups for the LONG run; but think they are very overdue for a correction in the near term. If you are ever interested in reading up on all posts on a topic/stock, on the right margin of the blog is a "label cloud" - I label each entry with a specific topic - so if you click on said label you will pull up all historical posts for that company, sector, or theme (i.e. inflation, economy) etc.

  1. Walter Industries (WLT) [May 1: Walter Industries - the Most Amazing Company]
  2. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) [Apr 8: Changing Coal Allocation - Peabody Energy Out, Alpha Natural Resources In]
  3. Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) & Vale (RIO) [Mar 7: Starting 2 Mining Positions Emphasizing Iron Ore]
  4. Compass Minerals Int'l (CMP) [Mar 3: Who Knew? Salt?]
  5. Natural Gas [Feb 11: An Interesting Development in Natural Gas]
  6. Mechel (MTL) [Nov 5: Two New Foreign Positions Added Today]
  7. Sohu.com (SOHU) [Dec 5: Sohu.com Raises Guidance]
  8. Brazil [May 16: Brazil is Sexy]

Symbol Company Name % Price YTD
WLT Walter Industry Ord Shs 147.1
CLR Continental Resources Ord Shs 128.2
PCX Patriot Coal Corp 126.4
ANR Alpha Natural Resources Inc 125.6
FDG FORDING INC 104.7
SATS EchoStar Corp 101.8
EAC Encore Acquisition Co 98.9
SQM Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile 90.0
CLF Cleveland Cliffs Ord Shs 86.0
WTI W&T Offshore Inc 81.2
PDS Precision Drilling Trust 75.1
MEE Massey Energy Co 73.4
CMP Compass Minerals International Inc 72.9
GGB Gerdau SA Depository Receipt 69.6
BIG Big Lots Inc 68.3
MLNM Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc 66.7
OIS Oil States International Inc 66.0
SID Companhia Siderurgica Nacional 65.7
ENER Energy Conversion Devices Inc 64.4
WLL Whiting Petroleum Corp 63.0
XEC Cimarex Energy Co 62.7
SWN Southwestern Energy Co 61.7
CPX Complete Production Services Inc 61.3
PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy Inc 60.3
UNT Unit Corp 59.9
CRK Comstock Resources Inc 57.5
CXO Concho Resources Inc 56.8
SPN Superior Energy Services Inc 52.7
MTL Mechel ADR Rep 3 Ord Shs 51.9
CSX CSX Corp 51.7
HK Petrohawk Energy Corp 51.4
NBR Nabors Industries Ltd 51.2
EOG EOG Resources Inc 51.2
GDI Gardner Denver Inc 51.0
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc 49.8
R Ryder System Inc 49.6
COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corp 49.0
WHQ W-H Energy Services Inc 48.9
BAY Bayer ADR Rep 1 Ord Shs 48.9
XCO EXCO Resources Inc 48.3
ME Mariner Energy Ord Shs 48.3
HERO Hercules Offshore Inc 47.1
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software Inc 45.9
AKS AK Steel Holding Corp 45.5
DRS DRS Technologies Inc 44.6
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Co 44.6
X United States Steel Corp 42.4
SD SandRidge Energy Ord Shs 41.5
GTI GrafTech International Ltd 41.4
TCK Teck Cominco Ord Shs Class B 40.8
SOHU Sohu.com Inc 40.7
ACI Arch Coal Ord Shs 40.0
CENX Century Aluminum Co 39.6
CNQ CDN Natural Resource Ord Shs 39.1
SCHN Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc 38.8
ROST Ross Stores Inc 38.3
PEGFF Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 37.9
ECA ENCANA CORP 37.3
SDA Sadia ADR Rep 3 Pref Shs 37.1
STO StatoilHydro ADR Rep 1 Ord Shs 36.6
POT Potash Corp 36.4
TRN Trinity Industries Inc 36.1
PXP Plains Exploration & Production Co 36.1
TS Tenaris ADR 35.8
ATN Atlas Energy Resources LLC 35.3
FLS Flowserve Corp 35.3
UMBF UMB Financial Corp 35.2
EQT Equitable Resources Inc 35.0
DBD Diebold Inc 34.9
KSU Kansas City Sthn Ord Shs 34.9
CXG CNX Gas Ord Shs 34.6
FRO Frontline Ord Shs 34.3
HAS Hasbro Inc 34.1
CNX CONSOL Energy Inc 34.1
CHK Chesapeake Energy Ord Shs 34.1
RRC Range Resources Corp 33.8
DVN Devon Energy Ord Shs 33.5
WRC Warnaco Group Inc 33.3
FTI FMC Technologies Inc 33.3
CPS ChoicePoint Inc 33.0
BUCY Bucyrus International Inc 33.0
COSWF Canadian Oil Sands Trust 32.8
PDE Pride International Inc 32.5
WWY WM Wrigley Jr Ord Shs 32.0
AEM Agnico Eagle Ord Shs 31.9
BBL BHP Billiton ADR 31.7
NAVZ Navistar International Ord Shs 31.5
WAB Wabtec Corp 31.2
CFFN Capitol Federal Financial 31.0
PWE Penn West Energy Trust Units 30.8
SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC 30.8
LEAP Leap Wireless International Inc 30.6
SSL Sasol Level II ADR 30.2
SM St Mary Land & Exploration Co 29.9
HXM Desarrolladora Homex DR 29.9
APA Apache Corp Ord Shs 29.6
MT ArcelorMittal ADR 29.1
NFG National Fuel Gas Co 28.9
BBG Bill Barrett Corp 28.6
FST Forest Oil Corp 28.6
OC Owens Corning 28.5
GMT GATX Corp Ord Shs 28.3
FLR Fluor Corp 28.2
SYMC Symantec Corp 28.0
BHP BHP Billiton ADR 27.8
DLTR Dollar Tree Inc 27.6
BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp 27.5
CELG Celgene Corp 27.4
MOS Mosaic Co 27.1
TNE Tele Norte Leste ADR Reptg 1 Pref Shs 27.0
MA MasterCard Inc 27.0
FMC FMC Corp 26.6
TLM Talisman Energy Ord Shs 26.6
TER Teradyne Inc 26.5
WW Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc 26.4
HAL Halliburton Ord Shs 26.0
VMI Valmont Industries Inc 25.6
PBR Petroleo Brasileiro ADR Reptg 2 Ord Shs 25.6
MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc 25.5
KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc 25.5
RIO Companhia Vale Do Rio Docea 25.5
CPO Corn Products International Inc 25.4

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