What's working today? Stop me if you've heard this before... coal, natural gas, fertilizer. While I'm happy because I re-upped these positions yesterday I still would prefer to take some short term losses and see these names correct a meaningful 15-20% to load the boat, while everyone shrieks on CNBC about the death of commodities, and how the dollar is going to strengthen to par with the Euro within months. Our US peso is so inept it can't even create a 3 day rally... and looks like our "Economist in Chief" (it's just a mild slowdown, a patch in the road) wants to go out with 3 wars on his hands... no better way to end a tremendous era. Oil Prices Up on Word US Ship Fired on Iranian Boats. I try not to be political here because that is sure to turn off 50% of the readers (and my thought process is 95% of "them" are terrible for "us", regardless of party) but can I please utter "Cmon January 2009... please get here."
As an aside I don't normally comment on surveys, but hmmm... Consumer Sentiment worst in 26 years... you mean like the early 80s? The last time we had stagflation? Nah, never. We don't have either (a) a recession OR (b) inflation so how could we possibly have both? Nah. Impossible.
- Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in April, hitting its weakest in 26 years, on heightened worries over inflation and the sagging housing market, a survey showed on Friday.
- The April result is the lowest since March 1982's 62.0, when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still an issue for many Americans
- "More consumers reported that their personal financial situation had worsened than any time since 1982 due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and widespread reports of declines in home values," the survey said.
- "Never before in the long history of the surveys have so many consumers reported hearing news of unfavorable economic development as in the April survey."
- Nearly nine in 10 consumers thought the economy was now in recession, Reuters/University of Michigan said. (thankfully, 1 in 1 Economists in Chief don't believe so)
3 comments:
I just don't get it. How can so many seemingly smart people be so dense sometimes? I was watching Kudlow last night and the only person on there who made any logical sense was the contrarian guy. Everyone else was beating on him by saying 'corp profits are great, there isn't a recession'. How can anyone with a straight face say that with energy and food prices soaring that the consumer isn't going to get pinched? I'm really at a loss here...
Michael, great questions. I don't know but I have a few theories
#1 they talk their book. They want to acquire more assets for themselves or firm to manage because your assets = more fees. So why ever say negative things? That might cause people to not send them money
#2 they truly are out of touch. Just like the guys in DC. When your health care is gold plated, when you make 6 figures (in DC) or 7-10 figures (in NYC) you don't live in the same world. Do you think $4 gas matters? These are guys deciding if its going to be Porsche, BMW, or Mercedes next year and I'm not talking the low end stuff. Or if its going to be Hamptons or Italian condo next on the purchase list. Or both. Wealth is at its most concentrated since 1929. The top 0.1%, 0.5%, and 1% are at highest levels ever as % of total wealth in country. $5 milk is not really something to worry about.
#3 they are all secretly part owners in corporate farms and making millions off the farm subsidies? Best times ever?
You just need to walk in their shoes. I like McCain as a human but until 2-3 months ago he was clueless on the economy. Huckabee had a clue but he was not the right guy. McCain was sending Carli Fironi (however you spell it) at townhall meetings to speak whenever an economic question came up. Thats out of touch. Now he has his talking points provided by the Republican machine so he sounds halfway knowledgable but he was busy talking about Iraq while this was all falling down. On the other side of the ledger we have 2 people who will promise everything to Americans but simply create a massive legacy of more debt in their wake. Notice, no one talks about how they are going to pay for anything. So its just a big group who are out of touch.
Once I become wealthy, I plan to be out of touch too and simply write about these "poor" people I have to deal with as my butler goes grocery shopping... people we used to call "middle class" ;)
Once I become wealthy, I plan to be out of touch too and simply write about these "poor" people I have to deal with as my butler goes grocery shopping... people we used to call "middle class" ;)
Well, what's funny is that while talking to a friend a couple of years ago right before the housing bubble burst I asked him what he thought we (the US) should do prevent a serious recession/depression when the bubble finally came to an end. He, always the cynic, answered, "I don't know what the US is going to do, but I'm going to bust my ass to make sure I remain in the top 5%." lol
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