Tuesday, April 22, 2008

McDonalds (MCD), DuPont (DD) Continue the Trend - Overseas Strength Mitigates Weakness at Home

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This storyline is becoming old quickly [Apr 19: Dollar's Plunge Becomes Lynchpin for Q1 Earnings]... again, I've been using the Ultrashort of the the Russell 2000 instead of the S&P 500 or Dow 30 for this reason since August... large companies will win in this environment and small companies (who rely on subprime nation) will lose. I am using Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM). We are quickly running out of Dow 30 stocks reporting by next week, and then S&P 500 stocks (which are smaller than the Dow 30 but larger than most components in the Russell 2000) will be finishing off in the next week or two as well. Then we will be left with the stuff on the bottom of our shoes - companies that rely on Americans.

The more I read about these multinationals and how many now have 55-70% sales outside the US, the more I realize the US can go into a multi decade tail spin and the multinationals won't care one bit... sort of ironic.

McDonald's (MCD) first; they beat by 11 cents but 5 of that was currency - still its a 6 cent beat... I continue to believe this is a trade down play along with Walmart (WMT) BUT they still are going to be hit with commodity costs (I can't believe I can get a McChicken for $1!), and if the economic fallout is truly bad down the road, even they won't be immune. But so far so good. (Note I own Ultrashort Consumer Services (SCC) which holds McDonald's and Walmart as its top 2 positions, but that is out of necessity as I cannot short individual names - I'd prefer to short individual retailers and restaurants and avoid the "big 2" which should be relative winners in the coming/current recession)
  • McDonald's Corp. said Tuesday that its first-quarter profit rose 24 percent as the fast food company benefited from the weak U.S. dollar and strong global sales. For the January-March period, the suburban Chicago company earned $946.1 million, or 81 cents per share. That's up from $762.4 million, or 62 cents per share, during the same period last year.
  • The world's largest restaurant chain said European revenue climbed 23 percent to nearly $2.4 billion, while quarterly revenues in Asia, the Middle East and Africa grew 24 percent to about $1 billion. Both geographic regions posted double-digit profit growth.
  • In the U.S., same-store sales grew 2.9 percent during the quarter, but the company disclosed its comparable U.S. sales fell in March. That 0.8 percent decline was the first negative same-store sale figure in five years, analysts said. (uh oh)
Next, Dupont (DD) which is becoming a stealth agriculture play... but the weakness in the US overwhelmed that. Volumes down, but weak dollar comes in like Captain America to save the day. Or maybe it's Captain U.S. Peso.
  • Chemicals company DuPont said Tuesday that profits increased 26 percent in the first quarter, boosted in part by higher selling prices and the weak dollar.
  • Sales for the quarter grew 9 percent to $8.6 billion, thanks largely to higher local selling prices and the weak dollar, as overall volume was down 1 percent. Revenue totaled $8.77 billion, up from $8.16 billion.
  • The company's performance continues to be driven by growth outside the United States, with overseas sales accounting for almost two-thirds of total sales for the quarter. Volume in the U.S. was down 5 percent, while volume increased 4 percent in Europe and 6 percent in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
  • During the quarter, sales in emerging markets grew 25 percent, led by Brazil, China, India and Eastern Europe. Local selling prices increased 6 percent overall, more than offsetting higher ingredient costs.
  • Sales in the agriculture and nutrition unit increased 18 percent to $2.9 billion, reflecting strong global demand for DuPont's seed technology and crop protection products.
I don't know about you but when I read about all of this strength in other countries it sort of saddens me even further about our plight. We are like the old veteran ballplayer who is past his prime. Oh well, everything will be fine in 6 months everyone assures me... Viagra on the way!

Long Ultrashort Consumer Services, Russell 2000 in fund and personal account

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