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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Fund my Mutual Fund Stock Invitational - Championship Game

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Well the oddsmakers from a few rounds ago were correct - it's all come down to this: Apple v Potash.

Scouting report:

Apple coming off a trouncing of Johnson & Johnson, is the ultimate consumer convergence play - style, cache, a relentless head coach who bends the rules but is the visionary back from exile, and legions of die hard fans that will travel across the country to support their team. They've transformed themselves from a pure play computer maker to a digital age entertainment company. Always 3 steps ahead of the competition. Their guards, iPhone and iPod get all the glory but their bread and butter center, Macs (think Tim Duncan), are the real story here - fundamentally strong, quiet, efficient, effective. How can you beat them? You must ignore the international story and hope the US consumer is felled to such a degree they give up their electronic fashion statements... first goes Abercrombie jeans, then go Apple products goes the story.

Potash, took out the venerable Warren B in the semifinal game.... after being mired in the also ran fertilizer league for years, this now powerhouse conference sent Canadian country boy Potash to the tournament (over objections by tournament director who preferred Mosaic). Ridiculous price increases without relent have propelled this name to higher highs by the quarter. Pricing power, margin expansion, and the ability to bring new product on line in the long run are it's strengths. Led by a trio of guards - curly haired Potash gets all the press, but Phosphates has grown 6" over the summer and this 6'9" player now plays "Small forward" and has been the center of strength of late; and don't forget the supporting role of Nitrogen. How can you beat them? Worldwide famine and outrage at Western country policies of "fuel instead of food" initiatives could cause a change in ethanol policy/subsidies in latter 2008 or 2009. While this would be more of a perception problem than a reality check - all that matters to investors minds is perception.

Game On!

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