Earnings Wed - Fri

So far earnings this week have been relatively uninspiring even with the lower expectations ... Intel (INTC) should dominate the mood this evening and judging from the chart it doesn't look too promising. CSX (CSX) on the other hand looks like the global bull market in all things commodities just refuses to cease and desist. I continue to believe there is simply no reason to take any outsized risk ahead of all these reports, so I am not doing much and just waiting to see the reactions to each report. And continue to monitor the guidance - I believe the companies will begin their confessions either this quarter or next on how 2008 is not shaping up to expectations (aside from a select group of multinationals)

Here is how the rest of the very busy week shapes up and what I'm looking at

Wednesday
Fund holding asset manager Blackrock (BLK) - I expect continued slow, steady wins the race - unlike semi-competitor State Street (SST) which just reported and is getting a 7% hit today, BLK from all we have been told has nothing in the way of subprime exposure - the only difficulties could be from the credit markets i.e. auction rate securities. I wouldn't mind seeing a selloff to add to this quite small stake. I continue to watch in mock horror as the equity market ignores all the issues the credit market has... like a child that must touch the hot stove multiple times to learn - the General Electric lesson is already forgotten... remember the bond guys are considered the nerds and the equity guys the testosterone laced jocks... it appears the latter are going to run full blast into the wall...

• During the first quarter, "unprecedented illiquidity continued in the fixed-income markets," State Street Corp Chief Executive Ronald Logue said during the firm's quarterly earnings call Tuesday. "At the end of the fourth quarter things seemed a little better, but in February the markets froze up again, and then equity markets declined rapidly," the CEO said. As a result of continuing illiquidity, the mark-to-market on State Street's investment portfolio rose in the first quarter. "We also saw an increase in the unrealized loss on the assets held by our conduits," Logue said

eBay (EBAY) - this stock is already dead to me.. just a value tech play whose peak growth is over - but some people still care so I'll peak at it at least. If they spun off PayPal that's something I'd be interested in.

Gilead Science (GILD) - I fear all biotech or pharma names due to high risks, but this is one who is simply a performer, and market favorite.

IBM (IBM) - well they are IBM - they'll usually find a way to make numbers - any material weakness must be noted as a bad sign for the economy but it's becoming quite a global entity

JPMorgan (JPM) - they own the Fed in their back pocket so they'll be fine

Fund holding New Oriental Education (EDU) - very interesting situation here; after a disappointing quarter the stock sell off sharply and then proceeded to rally very nicely all quarter (which is rare in itself), and now has sold off sharply in the past week ahead of earnings - that makes me worried but it is a very small stake so I'll watch and see how things play out. Wouldn't mind a sell off here as well...

Coke (KO) - see IBM

Wells Fargo (WFC) - well run but the macro forces of CA will probably weigh on this name for quite a while.

Thursday
Too many banks to mention but I'll look at credit card company Capital One Financial (COF) - continue to believe they will be in growing trouble each quarter that passes, but with any financial the stock could rally on "it's terrible but not a complete and utter disaster" sort of thinking

In solar, also ran Evergreen Solar (ESLR) which is simply rising with the entire tide, and American polysilicon maker Sunpower (SWPR) which has put on quite a rally with the entire space of late - always looking for updates on gross margins, polysilicon picture etc.

Google (GOOG) after the close - definitely will affect Friday's open; I sold this a few weeks ago - a lot of moving parts but we've never seen Google perform in a recession so guessing the results/reaction is a total crapshoot.

Harley Davidson (HOG) - see COF - any spikes & these are names one would want to bet against - conspicuous baby boomer consumption at its best - again could benefit from same washed out "better than expected" Kool Aid thinking but that will be short lived

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - I totally missed buying this on the dip in mid $200s by about $10. It's had a huge run since but that makes it more risky to me. Expectations are sky high and some "rumblings" out there that due to credit conditions (not that equity market players care) *might* cause some hospitals issues in terms of ordering their very expensive robots. This one will be interesting as the momentum traders love this name.

Marriot (MAR) - I'm curious on any updated on US travel - any slowdowns from consumer

Merrill Lynch (MER) - another huge report since investment banks run Wall Street and this name is prototypical Wall Street.... along with Citibank, these are the epicenters of bad mortgages. But with a new CEO that is respected they seem to be getting a relatively free pass for now.

Nokia (NOK) - best of breed in its space - any weakness would be detrimental of course to the market; chart action of late makes me worried

Nucor (NUE) - steel! I admit, I am flabbergasted by the ability for steel companies to pass along any cost - their inputs are rising at enormous rates yet the stocks ramp - which can only assume that they have no margin pressure and any cost they have to eat, they just pass along to the end customer. I still find them risky and would rather own the companies charging them hand over fist for the inputs.

United Technologies (UTX) - like GE but without the finance? This is a company that you just take for granted - I expect the same theme of great international story and slowing domestic story. Now, this quarter it will actually be more interesting, because if they repeat any of the issues of GE in terms of inability for customers to buy big ticket items due to credit markets we go from an outlier event to a pattern. And a very bad pattern. So another company that is far more interesting than normal in terms of what they will say.

Friday
Caterpillar (CAT) - repeat after me; overseas markets booming; US economy poor. Rinse. Repeat.

Citibank (C) - yet another of "how bad will it be" and just a case of will it beat massively lowered expectations. Just a lot more writedowns, layoffs, selling off parts of the business, and capital infusions needed. But the stock could pop at any time because we'll hear for the 87th time "this is the kitchen sink quarter" - same goes for every other financial; but this one is the poster child for bad behavior.

Honeywell (HON) - see UTX - another big bad US multinational eating it up overseas but poised to face weakness domestically.

Manpower (MAN) - a key tell on the temporary workforce in America and "blue collar" temps especially. Canary in the coal mine type of company.

Schlumberger (SLB) - key big cap oil services name