Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Earnings Preview Wed and some After Hours Reports Tonight

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Looks like Illumina (ILMN) did another great quarter tonight - I was hoping it would not so I could buy at a much lower price off of a "miss". No such luck. Former fund holding VMWare (VMW) made $2 million more profit this year than last - which is quite pathetic for what was supposed to be the next great tech stock; but expectations were so low that the stock is bursting higher in after hours. Former fund holding Broadcom (BRCM) also looks decent and expectations are so low, it is enough to get people excited. The bar appears still to be very low right now. Again, this earnings season is a time of wonderment and amazement and you just can never figure out the reaction to the news.

Names I'm watching for in a VERY busy day tomorrow and why...

Wednesday
Amazon.com (AMZN) - a sentiment name for the NASDAQ

Ambak (ABK) - strange how all the "issues" with these simply dropped off the radar - did all their problems get sweeped away? Literally it is as if these 2 bond insurers no longer exist. They were the focus of the market every day for a month and the "resolution" offered the names didn't seem to really fix the problem. Strange.

Fund holding Apple (AAPL) - even more of a sentiment name for the whole market - I expect great news and conservative guidance. Some quarters the market laughs off conservative guidance some they sell off the stock heavily... all on the same guidance. You just never know. Either way, whatever they say tomorrow, they will crush in 3 months at the next earnings report. And keep repeating the game.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - a "story" stock in restaurants; great management, great brand, super high valuation.

Fund holding Core Laboratories (CLB) - oil services have been amazing of late.

Fund holding Homex (HXM) - Mexican homebuilder which has shown some nice strength of late

EMC (EMC) - not quite the bellweather it once was for tech

Foundation Coal (FCL) - coal. Need I say more.

Former fund holding Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) - enjoying the non stop move in commodities

PF Chang's (PFCB) - more "upscale" Chinese restaurant

Philip Morris International (PM) - after its recent spin off, this IPO has done very little. Will be curious about their first public quarter.

Parexel (PRXL) - another contract research outfit; PPDI reported tonight and looked very solid; another name where the chart was looking awful (PPDI) but the report was good

Pulte Homes (PHM), Ryland Group (RYL) - whatever they say, it's great because the world will be fine in 6 months; I like Ryland of the main homebuilders...

Range Resources (RRC) - this is one of the natural gas names I was considering adding to the fund and really like.

Former fund holding Schering-Plough (SGP) - this drug market was a disappointment

The Boeing Company (BA) - mmmm much like The Ohio State University; funny how Yahoo finance has it's name. I actually like this name down here and if I were running a mega/large cap fund with buy and hold philosophy I'd be building a stake now. Huge backlog, little competition, etc.

United Parcel Service (UPS) - this would matter but no one cares about the economy anymore. Just close eyes, and believe everything will be fine in 6 months... so earnings from names like this don't matter. Remember, like Intel they already lowered guidance so when they "beat" tomorrow and CNBC heralds the return of the economy, just keep in mind it is off a number they just lowered a short while ago. The spin will be fun to watch and maybe the market can rise 1000 points.

XTO Energy (XTO) - see Range Resources; simply an amazing run

2 comments:

Link McGinnis said...

I lost a fortune in CMG (not really but it sure felt like it as I watched it drop every day). For some reason I feel like I have to make it back in that very stock. Resisting urge.

Are you watching any of these in order to take a position?

TraderMark said...

I will take a position in anything I believe can make shareholders money; including anything on this list.

I look at all these to make my macro views of the economy, competitors, peers, etc.

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