Sunday, April 6, 2008

Earnings Preview this Week

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As always the official start of earnings period comes with Alcoa (AA); still a quiet week overall as we really begin next week with the meat of the season...

A quick look at names of interest or fund holdings this week

Monday - Alcoa (AA), China Petro & Chem (SNP)

Tuesday - Sealy (ZZ): judging from the chart, mattresses are not selling very well in this economy

Wednesday - fund holding Shaw Group (SGR) - I've cut this back late this week to avoid earnings risk, and it's rallied nicely the past few days. The weakness the past month or so has been very curious. Severe underperformance compared to peer group. Circuit City (CC) will tell us how badly Best Buy (BBY) continues to destroy it and shareholders will continue to cling on hope of a buyout. Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) is one of those nice mid level retailers who will say something bad, but maybe it's not as "bad as expectation" - all depends on how hopeful investor are that day; many retailers have been hit so hard simply saying our same store sales fell 11% instead of 9% might rally them 15%. I would expect, not specific to this name, but in general a constant refrain of slowing down expansion plans, cutting back on hiring (or in fact firing), and having trouble providing guidance throughout the retail space outside of a handful of names.

Thursday - very brief fund holding FCStone (FCSX) reports; hopefully we'll get some clarity on how the troubles in the credit market are affecting it as the rumor mongering has simply destroyed this stock; this could potentially bounce nicely if they reassure investors... Genentech (DNA) - one of the grandfathers of biotech. Pier 1 Imports (PIR) - another chronic underachiever in the home furnishings space - currently rallying on the "worst is behind us, home sales should be booming in 6 months or insert your own reason here"

Friday - General Electric (GE) - expect the same refrain; subprime US flattish (or slowing) - creditor nations booming.

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