Monday - there does not seem to be any names that could upset the market early this week; the only flies in ointment might be "sell on the news" reactions in either coal or oil services. The farther these groups run up without any break before earnings, the more prone to profit taking on a "sell the news" reaction.
Fund holding Arch Coal (ACI) - there should be no surprises here as Arch Coal just came out with an update to their guidance 2 weeks ago. I have a relatively small stake right now, awaiting impatiently the "commodities are dead" sell off we get every month to 6 weeks.
Bank of America (BAC) - major bank in the US but really does it matter anymore; whatever these guys say there is clapping and cheering from the rafters because the financial issues are "all taken care of within a few months"
Cemex (CX) - this is a global powerhouse in cement; it is unfortunate for them they are based in Mexico where the real peso is kicking the US peso's behind and is at a 2 year high, whereas if they were based in the US, they'd be able to take advantage of the "weak currency" play that has helped multinational after multinational spin away all their domestic troubles.
Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) - another coal name
Halliburton (HAL) - HAL has been an absolute monster of late - this oil service giant is trading as if its a fertilizer stock. Below is a chart of the Oil Services ETF (OIH) - if you plot a chart of ANY oil service stock the past few weeks it is identical - completely parabolic. Now, to me, this makes little sense because fortunes don't suddenly change at crude $115 versus crude $105 which is where the stuff has been trading for weeks/months, but logic has very little to do with the market in the near term. The market gods say oil services now are important when crude is >$110 so away these stocks go, up up up.
Merck (MRK) - one of these names the market cares about, but I don't
Nabors (NBR) - I've been dusting off my old list of land drillers, which have been near dead for 2 years - showing a ton of strength of late - this is the big dog of the group
Texas Instruments (TXN) - not really a bellweather anymore, but hey it is based in the US and has overseas sales so they will probably show weak organic sales, but "strong" currency exchange and the party for US multinationals can continue
Weatherford International (WFT) - yet another oil services name that is simply going parabolic
Tuesday
AK Steel (AKS) - investors love their steel stocks
Baker Hughes (BHI) , BJ Services (BJS), Smith International (SII) - Oil services. Ballistic. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
Broadcom (BRCM) - former fund holding, their chips are in everything. Could be breaking out here...
Chicago Mercantile (CME) - former "exchange" darling ; been very quiet of late
Coach (COH) - this will be an interesting report; it's been beaten down for a long time - if it ramps than truly the "everything will be fine in 6 months" mantra will be firmly entrenched. More important than the results are the reaction to results; I actually like this name as they expand into China but unfortunately their 2 biggest markets are Japan and US so I've had to go negative on since late last summer.
Dupont (DD) - anything remotely touching agriculture is ramping. Dupont is one of them.
Encana (ECA) - major natural gas player
Fund holding Illumina (ILMN) - another very interesting situation - very very highly valued and as we've mentioned there has been some strange weakness in medical research outsourcing of late (in the stock prices) - simply due to valuation I could see this one prone to a serious selloff. Competitor AFFX has warned. I only have a small stake and waiting very impatiently for a long time for a serious selloff.
Fund holding Jacobs Engineering (JEC) - I meaningfully added to this position late this week; I would of made this a larger position but anything more than 3% going into earnings makes me nervous. Again, the strange thing with infrastructure stocks is how investors react so severely to 1 quarter - these are multi year, secular growth stories with many long term contracts - their quarters are VERY lumpy yet people dump these stocks or worship at their alter based on nothing more than the recent earnings report. A lot of their sales "should" be overseas as well.
McDonalds (MCD) - pooring of America middle and lower class benefits these guys; along with Walmart these are 2 "huge" stocks I'd buy if I were a very large cap fund manager.
Former fund holding Millicom International Cellular (MICC) - the stock of this "2nd/3rd" cellular name has been quite weak of late, will be interesting to see if its hand wringing over nothing. Or maybe people more worried about food just don't have money for cell phones.
Railroad Norfolk Southern (NFC) - follow the CSX example; booming due to grain, ethanol, and coal exports - but not a sign of domestic strength.
Former fund holding Peabody Energy (BTU) - still love this coal name for the long run but I flipped it out of the basket of coal stocks for another name recently.
Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) - this is one of those contract research organizations we've been looking at to potentially diversify into - the stocks have been acting poorly of late so I'll be interested to see if we have any sort of negative news coming.
VMWare (VMW) - this was one of the hottest IPOs of 2007; how quickly they have fallen.
Yahoo (YHOO) - speaking of how quickly they have fallen ...yawn
A couple of other banks report Tuesday but really does it matter anymore? Everyone is convinced there are no problems that 6 months, some shoe polish, and a few billion in writeoffs won't fix so why even monitor them anymore? At some point the market will recognize the spreading credit malaise into the regional banks as commercial loans, and local loans start to hurt these names but since it will be spread out over a longer period of time - no one seems to be too worried about it for now.
