Thursday, April 17, 2008

Contract Research Organizations Weak Again

Posted by TraderMark at 3:08 PM TweetThis
I mentioned earlier this week the weakness in Parexel International (PRXL) - one of the top US contract research organization (CRO) companies (healthcare) [Apr 14: Keep an Eye on... Parexel International]. Then Tuesday Affymetrix (AFFX) (not a direct competitor) blew up [Apr 15: Affymetrix Blows Up on Warning], blaming a slowdown in research by customers. Now today the whole CRO group is showing some serious weakness. Keep in mind a 5% move down in this group is like a solar stock or fertilizer stock dropping 15%, as these are slow moving entities.

Covance (CVD) down 5%
Parexel International (PRXL) down 7%
Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) down 6%
ICON (ICLR) down 4%

These are the 4 names I follow and was interested in potentially buying at a lower valuation to diversify the portfolio - there are a few others, also weak. Again, healthcare spending is supposed to be a safe (recession proof) haven - I am wondering what is going on; if this is some sort of sector rotation or are healthcare companies having trouble getting funding in credit markets or simply pulling back R&D spend as business slows... strange to see this sector get hit like this without any news...

Looks like most report earnings in the next 2 weeks so it will be interesting to see if the stocks are telegraphing to us "those in the know" are exiting stage right and there is some sort of sector wide trouble.

No positions but watching closely

Posted by TraderMark at 3:08 PM Comments (4) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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4 comments:

Risk Manager Jeff said...

Arent these sectors highly influenced by government spending? I don't follow this sector, as honestly, I dont fully understand them. But on a tangent, a new thesis popped on up yahoo. (new for me, anyways)

Buffett, Soros: Betting on Biotech, 'End of the World' Plays
http://tinyurl.com/5g9hkt

I've been trying to find ANY way to diversify out of commodities but still retain growth. And it seems like anything commodity related is also "rest of world growth" related. Everything hinges on that one thesis. So, while this one is related still, it is more demographic that a growing economy.

I guess, it is a play on a growing 'inelastic' demand due to demographics which would be less correlated to commodities.


Btw - the pieces you are doing on earnings is awesome! The bottoms up approach starting with what companies are saying about the real world is so much informative than what junk the traditional media spews.

April 17, 2008 3:32 PM  
TraderMark said...

Nope, I specifically like them because they are really the only part of the healthcare food chain that does not have FDA approval risk or govt reimbursement risk

Every other piece has one or the other. They are solid 15-20% growers (sometimes more), not sexy, but of late very highly valued due to the solid growth rates and safe haven status. So watching them get hit like this is interesting.

Those ideas of Soros and Buffet again, have FDA risk. Other than Gilead I don't trust any biotech, and most have pretty weak real growth 10-14%.

re: what the companies say - thats how I piece together my macro thoughts. If I listened to the spewing on traditional media I'd have lost all my money by now. They were telling me to get into financials after that first selloff in August since it was the kitchen sink!

April 17, 2008 4:04 PM  
Risk Manager Jeff said...

Isnt that FDA and reinbursement risk indirectly translated into this sector, though? It's not quite the same, but having higher FDA/reinbursement risks for a firm, is going to translate into less money for this type of testing and research.

I do like the idea of flue shot type vaccines (preferable annual!) which should be recession proof, and inexpensive enough to mass market in developing nations. But I suspect there is no pureplay which again, leads to difficulty in finding new growth ideas.

April 17, 2008 4:23 PM  
TraderMark said...

Well if you go along that line of thinking that even if your customers, or customers of your customers have risk due to FDA/govt - then there truly is no safe investment in healthcare. Better go to tell Soros and those guys before they lose all their money ;)

April 17, 2008 4:44 PM  

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