Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Bookkeeping: Taking some Fertilizer Profits

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While I believe the fundamentals do support this move, the charts for the fertilizer stocks are now reaching parabolic stage, after massive moves last week [71 Stocks Returning 7%+ Last Week] so I am going to continue to reduce my exposure and await a pullback (let me emphasize many traders on Wall Street buy charts like this, not SELL - they love buying 52 week highs so I am taking a contrary stance). These moves in Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) and CF Industries (CF) have been breathtaking (along with another 4-5 fertilizer stocks I follow which I do not have in the portfolio). I am cutting back on all 3. That doesn't mean they cannot go up another 30% straight from here. It is just getting a bit too hot and heavy for my taste and I can see a line of lemmings about 7 miles long to pile into these names at this point. Potash does report next week...

My Ultrashort Basic Materials (SMN) "Insurance" is whacking the portfolio today but as I said when I bought it... if its hurting me, that means the rest of my portfolio should be doing well.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosiac, Ultrashort Basic Materials in personal account







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