Nowhere near any support. Will buy back lower. No change in long term prospects. Cutting from 2.1% of fund to 1.3%, with a sale near $159. I'll let someone else take the risk from here... if the mania continues the next sell will be $175.
Long Mechel in fund and personal account
5 comments:
I took some off a couple days ago, when it had that little reversal candle wick. The pattern still projects to 170-180 area, give or take. Actually, MTL seems to be the least extended iron/coal stock imo. Which suggests the sector is getting rather nutty.
EAT is up on earnings today. I havent gone through in depth, but even the international component (at first glance) is doing well. Do you know which restaurants have little to no international (definately not MCD, which is also showing the same trend) exposure? Also, buying some heavy international restaurants might not be such a bad idea. With this in context, I had better do some more digging in CAKE and DRI.
Not familiar with EAT
YUM is a big int'l one to avoid.
I'd been down on things like Ruby Tuesday and Buffalo Wild Wings and local stuff like that. I never looked into CAKE and DRI is a mixed bag - I like the mgmt but I think the economy will overwhelm them.
Even in fast food there is like Carl's juniors versus McDonalds - the latter is getting smoked, whereas McD is fine. Just need to pick your spots and make sure you have no intl/weak dollar exposure.
I'll go look at EAT when I have time - never really looked at it so I don't know what restaurants it owns.
I should add
I would not be short going into earnings
all these co need to do is say "expectations were horrid and we are here to announce they are terrible... terrible is much better than horrid" and your heavily shorted stock goes up 15%
Thats what happened to BWLD last Q. Then you can short on the pop. BWLD already down from 28 to 24 ...
RT as bad as it is, is being priced for death. But I was negative last fall before it was priced for death. Any pop on earnings and it provides an easy opportunity
I just dont like any position, long or short, into earnings - stocks react to expectations. Death is now priced into some names :)
COSI is another good one like that.
Not a restaruant but i still love the WFMI short...
CMG is also very interesting
its one of those "battleground stocks"
very persistent longs and shorts
great concept, great management - far too high of valuation...
I cant get shares to short on that one. I agree, great management. But again, I think they are battling a tide bigger than they are.
DECK (retailer) looks almost the same and has the same type of momentum. Also, I think it has some decent management. But I dont think they have any competitive edge. Kinda like CROC that way. Their flagship product - the UGS - are just as ugly as CROCS and made with sheepskin - another commodity.
I think i need to spend some time to look over the restaurants a bit more. DRI has already reported, and CAKE is this week. I'll look into some of these other restaurants you mentioned.
I agree, i dont like to bet big before earnings, tho I dont mind starting a 1/4 position, and layering in through it, should it pop for no good reason other than 'beat lowered estimates' and better Q3/4 guidance
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