The weighting is currently 60% cattle, 40% hogs. Either way, get your freezer stocked up, by Labor Day those BBQs are going to cost a pretty penny. Inflation will eventually push up the value of all finite resources... including stocks! (always a bright side)
I'm starting a new stake with 500 shares @ $43.50s, or a 1.9% stake.
As I've said before I am unclear how useful technical analysis is with commodities but if it has use, this is a nice chart breakout formation I've been waiting for... back over the 50 day moving average and making a heck of a move off a recent bottom. 52 week high is up there around $50.
Long iPath DJ Livestock ETN in fund; no personal position
5 comments:
Mark: Great comments about the BBQ; it made me laugh.
Plus let's face it...most market analysis whether fundamental or technical doesn't mean a damn thing; yes we can due fundamental analysis to define our investing themes; TA is most useful for putting structure to one's decision making. Other than that most of it is BS. Would ever bet the ranch or my life on any analysis or certainty pertaining to the stock market?
I think there are alot of people that successfully invest with technicals only. I use to that. But I found that once I started to work more at my dayjob, it wasn't nearly as easy. Too much time watching. Investing with themes... time and patience adds to the wealth.
anyways, Mark, about COW - the cow/hogs - where is the physical market? I see what you mean about the possible shortage, but I am wondering if there are 'basis spreads' in cows/hogs around the world. I'm assuming these are US cows and hogs. Could ETNs with a different location be more effective?
I have HOGS for the Chinese market
Pork is #1 consumption item in China
So I have the main markets covered ;)
Not sure on your question to be honest - there are limited ways to play this so I chose the one with the longest history - there was a new one introduced last week in the comments section of the "Four New Agriculture ETFs" by another reader.
I'm just playing a macro prediction; the actual schematics someone else can delve into. I only have 24 hours in a day.
Ok, I'll so some work, as I think it's an interesting idea. I was just talking to a friend of mine, about the time it takes to get cows to market. (He has a cattle raising farm before they hit the COW fat camp) It's only around 9-10 months, so a shortage would probably be a fairly short affair. Add in gestation of 9 months aswell, so its probably a fairly tight window. Which means, picking the ETN which has the shortest term maturities might be the way to go. Just a thought.
**I think there are alot of people that successfully invest with technicals only.**
A myth. I looked at a brokerage study of long term track records (5year+) of the most successful fund managers, and the strategies they use, none of them are TA guys, all value investors with no exception.
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