I'm adding in the $144-$145 range and moving Mechel up from 2.4% to 3.1% of the fund.
I began this company in early November 07 [Nov 5: Two New Foreign Positions Added Today], and frankly it's grown into one of my favorite ideas - much like the fertilizers and Apple (AAPL) I don't really keep up with the daily news on these, knowing it's going much higher over time - with the momentum trader bumps along the way. Unfortunately, Cramer discovered it as well but it still seems to be a relatively good secret (Yahoo message board volume is about 2% of fertilizer stocks or solar stocks for example) Talk about being in all the right places (steel, coal, iron) at all the right times with a totalitarian ...err, I mean friendly democratic... government at your back. Now if they only bought a Russian potash mine...
Some earlier posts...
[Dec 12: Mechel Reports Earnings, Considers Mining IPO] & [Apr 9: Mechel Continues to Acquire Most of Eastern Europe]
Long Mechel, Apple in fund; long Mechel in personal account
7 comments:
Whoa, you make the comment to add more shares and the stock takes off!!!
Nice V chart today!
Mark,
Lost the opportunity to buy these fertilizer stocks yesterday. They pulled to 20ma and rebounded sharply. Kind of making a V chart.
Any thoughts on pulling back again?
Also, what is your EXIT strategy on ISRG? It is flirting with 200 ma. If it falls below 200ma, are you out or adding more?
All questions after 5 pm on Friday are due for $50 surcharge.
re: fertilizer - at some point they will pullback to 50 day moving average. MOS also has that little gap at $110. It will happen at some point, but it could be 10-15% higher first. It's all moot to me since MOS is $200 by Dec 31, 2008 IMO.
re: ISRG, I will buy down to 200 day, in mid to upper 260s. If it breaks, I sell, take my loss and wait for it to come back through. When stocks are jumping up and down around their 50 and 200 day, I tend to do a lot of transactions, but the costs of transactions are worth it to avoid a big loser. Momentum stocks that are abandonded an fall a long way. I don't know if its abandonded yet. We won't know until it clearly breaks 200 day. At that point it could drop 100 points if it gets multiple contraction. Or it could bounce and make 50 pts higher. I let the charts tell me what the "herd" wants to do. $265 was my next buy point as stated in earlier posts. So I'll buy there and if its the wrong move, I leave.
today is the only day i forgot to check your blog while trading and damn it, i miss the huge run in mtl. i noticed it right at the day low but didn't act like yesterday when i bot back mos at a better price. cf also fooled me today. what a nice run!
long MOS in personal account :-)
Jerry, that will teach you to never forget again ;)
It was a textbook bounce on the MTL, sort of nice when things act normal. I'm almost lulled into believing we are back in a bull market. Almost.
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