Friday, April 11, 2008

Bears Win Again?

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Doesn't look good for the Kool Aid swiggers unless we have a quick reversal back above S&P 1350 in the next 2.5 hours. This is not a chart you'd want to take home to mom; especially in the face of earnings season.



Taking a quick look at next week's docket, Tuesday is going to be mighty interesting with the likes of Intel (INTC), Washington Mutual (WM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and CSX (CSX) - the latter I expect very good things from as our grains, corns, and coal gets sucked up across the globe.

But there is still hope as we have 2.5 hours for Uncle Ben to helicopter drop Kool Aid over our collective heads and get us dreaming of unicorns, mermaids, and "everything will be fine in 6 months". I have been incrementally adding short exposure, not buying a thing, and sitting in the Swiss Alps (neutral). If we continue to break down into the close, I'll add more.... again, expect the day to day action of the next few weeks to return to volatility after a very quiet past week. Each day the world will either (a) be ending or (a) the beginning of a new golden era ... based on a few bellweather earnings reports each day. All of it is nonsense and overreaction, but that's how the lemmings do things so you have to respect the power of a horde of 2 ounce monsters ruining your portfolio in the short term!

This is truly one of my favorite pictures of all time; and represents all that is wrong with human herd behavior (below)

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