Sunday, March 16, 2008

WSJ: People Want Bear Stearns Sold Before Asian Markets Open!

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Poor Joseph Lewis ["Smart Money" is Buying, So Should You!] - he of billionaire status who was buying Bear Stearns at the bargain price of $105-$120 last fall - looks like he is going to get about $20/share when all is said and done. (if lucky) I heard this weekend he lost $800 million on this deal as of Friday's price, so with Bear potentially going for far less than Friday's close, I guess we can put this total at >$1 billion loss. That's gotta sting.

Anyhow, the financial world is frantically trying to get Bear Stearns sold before Asian markets open in a tizzy. Then we can clap like seals and send the US stock market up Monday as we ignore all the other potential calamities coming down the pike. Kool Aid baby!
  • Bear Stearns Cos. was closing in on a deal Sunday afternoon to sell itself to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., as worries deepened that the financial crisis of confidence could spread if Bear failed to find a buyer by Monday morning. People familiar with the discussions said all sides were pushing hard to complete an agreement before financial markets in Asia open for Monday trading.
  • Reflecting the dire situation at Bear, the company is likely to fetch considerably less on a per-share basis than its stock price of $30 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading Friday at 4 p.m. Last year, the shares hit $170.
  • One stumbling point appeared to be the amount of risk that J.P. Morgan would absorb in any type of transaction. While J.P. Morgan is eager to snap up some of Bear Stearns assets -- such as its prime brokerage business that caters to hedge funds -- Chief Executive Officer James Dimon was reluctant to pursue the deal without certain assurances that would protect his firm's exposure, said people familiar with the matter.
  • Regulators, bankers and investors are concerned that the firm could plummet even further when markets open Monday. A continued exodus by parties that Bear trades with could even cause the investment bank to collapse.
  • Terms likely will factor in the value of Bear's Madison Avenue headquarters, which could be valued at around $1.2 billion based on going market rates. That could make Bear's banking franchise worth roughly $1 billion -- a pittance for a firm that was regularly making $1 billion to $2 billion in net income during the middle of the decade. (so the building Bear is in, is as worth as much, or more, than the underlying business - a sad statement on the hocus pocus black box earnings potential of our investment banks)
  • Bear also has been preparing for the possibility of a bankruptcy filing, with that as the likeliest scenario if an acquisition by J.P. Morgan falls apart, according to a person familiar with the situation. Such a filing might even occur before financial markets in Asia open for Monday trading.
Once again, this shows just how quickly it can all fall apart in the intricate web of unregulated finance that is our country's backbone. From denying any problems on CNBC Wednesday to effectively bankrupt Friday if not for Fed bailout - to potentially really being bankrupt Monday (or a shotgun marriage at the best)

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