Absolutely no redeeming investment
thesis from this article, but interesting nonetheless... I wonder what it says for our society. Or if people simply feel duped or bitter. What struck me is the huge % of properties left in this condition; if it were 10% I'd say it's relative isolated but 1 in 2 houses? Yikes.
- The stucco subdivisions of Las Vegas are caught up in the nation's foreclosure crisis. These days, bankers and mortgage companies often find that by the time they get the keys back, embittered homeowners have stripped out appliances, punched holes in walls, dumped paint on carpets and, as a parting gift, locked their pets inside to wreak further havoc.
- Real-estate agents estimate that about half of foreclosed properties to be sold by mortgage companies nationwide have "substantial" damage.
- The most practical way to ensure the houses are returned in decent shape, lenders and their agents say, is to pay homeowners hundreds or even thousands of dollars to put their anger in escrow and leave quietly. A ransom? A bribe? "Yeah, somewhat,"
- In Las Vegas, 1.9% of homes in the Las Vegas area were in the foreclosure process in January, almost triple the rate of a year earlier. Each day, auctioneers offer 150 to 200 properties for sale in the small lobby of the Nevada Legal News -- a high-speed inventory of dreams forfeited. About 95% of the auctioned properties, however, go unsold and revert to banks eager to get the properties off their books. Some owners just walk away peacefully. But agents say a significant number take what they can carry and take revenge on the rest.
- "I'm one of the thousands of people in town in foreclosure so I'd like to get as much as possible for the items," said one recent Las Vegas online ad offering a double wall oven, dishwasher and built-in microwave, all of which, in most cases, legally belong to the bank.
- "When you're losing your dream, and you're paying all this money to it...and you're hoping that it's going to go up, and you're going to make 100 grand like everybody else did, and it doesn't happen -- you know, people get upset," says Joe Kraemer, a broker with Century 21 Advantage Gold who deals in foreclosed homes.
- The original owner bought the house new in 2003 for $131,000. A year ago, Mr. Carver says, it could have fetched a quarter of a million. (sounds like madness now, eh?) The house sold for $170,000 in November, ferret scat included.
- One example house... Light switches, outlet covers and thermostats were smashed. There was what looked to be crowbar damage along the staircase. A large pool of paint had hardened on the living-room carpet. It appeared that someone had dripped motor oil in a trail that wound its way through every carpeted room. The appliances were gone, as were most light fixtures. A cabinet door had been removed and left soaking in a full tub of water. Not a wall was left without a hole the diameter of a closet rod, including the pink child's room once carefully decorated with a floral wallpaper stripe. It's damage that Mr. Carver described as "a vengeance-type thing."
- The former owners, who couldn't be located, paid $261,892 for the house when it was new in March 2006, borrowing $209,513 in their first mortgage, according to public records. Now it's listed for $149,000 -- as is.
- The owner, a 43-year-old man with two children who spoke on the condition that his name not be used, says he bought the property in 1993 for $140,000. Three years ago, he says he had the house appraised for $440,000 and took out a $207,000 home-equity loan to pay off credit-card bills and buy his wife a new van. His initial payments were an affordable $1,800 a month. (these are the people who the pundits miss when they think the damage is limited to "subprime people" who bought in 2005-2006-2007 - remember some people were serial refinancers - refinancing every year, drawing on that house ATM to live life, or redo the kitchen, or the new pool, or the SUV) He fell behind, however, after he went through a divorce and his landscaping business faltered, just as his interest rate was rising. The man worked out a payment plan with the bank and borrowed heavily from his father, but, including penalties, his monthly payments rose to $4,000, he says.
Now multiply this by thousands, and in some states like CA and FL and OH by hundreds of thousands - and let's discuss the recovery coming in 6 months. Even though most homes that *will* be in foreclosure have not even reached that stage yet....
KB Home (KBH) is not seeing it...
- Jeffrey Mezger, KB Home's president and chief executive, said a growing supply of unsold new and existing homes on the market, tight mortgage lending and industrywide discounting drove down sale prices and compressed margins during the quarter.
- "Until prices stabilize and consumer confidence returns, we believe inventory levels will remain significantly out of balance with demand," Mezger said in a statement. "We do not anticipate meaningful improvement in these conditions in the near term, as it is likely to take some time for the market to absorb the current excess housing supply and for consumer confidence to improve."
But anything to prop up the market... keep the mantra going...
in 6 months, everything will be fine. Let's chant it together...
2nd half recovery.
6 comments:
All these trashed houses could equal $$$$ for HD or LOW. :-D
I just did some work on stock prices and recessions and this may help to explain the second half recovery theory. I used data on recessions from the NBER.
Since 1923, there have been 15 recessions; the average length of time the recession lasted was 14 months. So let's say the recession started October, 2007 that would put the recovery starting in early 2009. Of course, there is nothing like Wall Street trying to get a jump on things. And although I haven't worked this up, I believe that post WWII recessions are shorter than the average so this would speak to a "real" second half recovery.
Other points are worth mentioning. If you bought the Dow Jones Industrials at the beginning of an official NBER recession and sold your position when the recession ended you would have actually made money in 60% of the cases (since 1923). However, there is a big problem with this logic and that is draw down. In 8/15 instances, the drawdown was over 15% and in 4 instances losses exceeded 20%. So with the Dow currently off its October, 2007 high by about 18%, some investors must be thinking: how bad can it get? Bingo! Second half recovery.
To read more about recessions and stock prices check out this link: http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/commentary/?CID=312
mark, good point - if we can trash enough houses maybe we can start a new bull for those 2 :)
I've noticed marks always come up with great points, not that I am biased....
guy, I never look at that stuff. History is history. If you did that analysis in 1929 you'd be wrong. If you did it in 1963 (20 years of flat stock returns) it would be useless. Every situation is different.
I don't recall have a worldwide global credit contagion anywhere in our past? If not for the central banks coordinated global injections (at the cost of inflation) this thing would blow up. Do you know how many bank runs we would of had and would have weekly? Thats the only thing (confidence) holding this together.
You just can't model that - and we don't have precedent. We are not even officially IN recession yet - thats the beauty of this one... usually recession is due to job losses, business pullback and the like. This is started by something totally unrelated to anything in the past. So hence it cannot be modeled.
The 6 month thing is because thats the playbook. A whole generation of people (who came to the market after the early 80s) are trained that recessions are short, sweet, and led by business, not consumer. That is their playbook. That is all most know. So they go off the playbook.
This recession will be led by the consumer in an inflationary environment. So I'd pull out the mid 70s to early 80s playbook with 2 recessions. With the socialist actions we will be "saved" from it lasting as long but I expect some serious dislocations.
Michigan has a unique problem with foreclosures as I hear it many foreclosures now have black mold problem. Foreclosure = owner leaves = utilities shut off = sump pump in basement backs up = black mold = house can't sell.
TM: I don't think my information is actionable but like yourself, I was just trying to explain, where some of this second half recovery nonsense comes from. While the present is not the past, it does rhyme. And I would agree that the time frame for most on Wall Street is from the 1980's onward (Cramer is #1 example); I have written about this from a sentiment standpoint; sentiment worked great in the 1980's and 1990's but not so well in the 1970's. In any case, I like this comment you made in a response: "But the system (all systems?) inherently benefit from keeping things "as is" ". I am a systems "guy" and quantitative in approach, and I would agree that "they" don't ring a bell when your model changes. Therefore, it is important to distill your information down to the easiest replicable most common denominator and that is price. Then throw in a very good dose of money management (because that is the only thing you can control) and hope someone can find your talent.
gecko, if you noticed I mentioned CA, FL, and OH
MI is so far gone it might as well be in another country ;)
Plus our foreclosures started 2-3 years ago. We are where the rest of the country will be (in much lighter form) in 2009. I am a bit surprised how bad OH is, frankly I didn't realize how tied they are to the auto industry.
GM and Ford are still banking on 2nd half recovery - the Cerebus guys at Chrysler seem to realize 2nd half recovery is a hoax. So when the cuts begin to realign production in 2nd half 2008 to a record low car sales year (worst since early 80s in my opinion), its going to cause a lot more pain in 2nd half, especially among supplier. I've given up on MI. It's another animal. Trying to focus on the other 49 states... and Guam.
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