Wednesday, March 19, 2008

My Kool Aid was Defective

Posted by TraderMark at 2:08 PM TweetThis
Well, what happened to the Federal Reserve solves everything Kool Aid I was drinking yesterday? Already we've broken back below S&P 1320. So every 75 basis point buys us a few hours of rallying, every $200 billion we throw at the problem buys us a 4% "best in 5 year rally", but we cannot hold any of these gains?

What's next? Are we going to have to start throwing $500 billion at a time? A trillion? Gosh darnit. Now I'm scared to see what they will come up with at S&P 1270 this time around. Cramer as new Fed Chief?

I'm back to buying Ultrashorts across the board again. And I'm returning this Kool Aid to Costco - so much for bulk Kool Aid drinking. I knew you could never trust a big round red "thing" with a disengenious smile. Only kids fall for that... and Wall Street MBA types.

Back to the grind - buying across all 6 Ultrashorts.... so tiring hitting this buy button after every "once in 5 year" type of rally. This is becoming a weekly occurance.

Here is my current technical game plan
1360+ Going back to Costco to buy more Kool Aid, and bathe in it daily
1320-1360 Big grey area where I am clueless on the next move
1260?1270 - 1320 Becoming despondant again, returning Kool Aid to Costco and listening to self
Below 1260?1270 Scared of what they will cook up this time to intervene in the free market and prop it up for the next 4% "best in 5 years" rally

Ever feel like you are in quicksand? We can never make any progress in this market except when the Gods from Mount Olympus show kindness to us with their cuts and interventions. Just imagine if the peons were left to fend for themselves, how much lower this market would be. But we'd actually be closer to a bottom. What a concept.

Posted by TraderMark at 2:08 PM Comments (2) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

2 comments:

Guy said...

24 hours later and I am back to whistling my tune and that is: market participants are not counting on a prolonged downtrend ala Spring, 2002 or 1974. The market is oversold and sentiment is bearish and the Fed continues to throw money at the situation and the market is SUPPOSE to go up - it did everytime this trifecta of events happened from 1982 to 2007 (except 2002). I don't know which way the wind will blow tomorrow, but I do know this: ever since there was a break of weekly support on the SP500 (2 weeks ago) and the NAS (4 weeks ago) there has been increasing chance of a continued sell off. As I don't boast or make predictions, my interpretation has been to reduce exposure and wait for confirmation as oppose to speculate on a bottom. I speculated 6 weeks ago and lost that battle!!

March 19, 2008 4:16 PM  
T-Rader said...

what did you expect? i don't know if you realize this but today is Wednesday and not Tuesday. and i think Charlie V is on vacation

it seems everybody and their mom got really bullish all of a sudden. how do i know this, even you were bullish. everybody bullish = bearish. it seems to pay to have a contrarian approach in this market.

March 19, 2008 6:07 PM  

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