March 2008 Update: Top 10 Winners and Losers

We last looked at the top 10 winners and losers for the fund mid December [Top 10 Winners and Losers so Far]. Now that it's a quarter later, time to update the list. In that time we've had a few nice weeks of rally at year end 2007, then a horrific fall in January 2008, followed by 6 weeks of range bound action and now another deterioration. So not an easy time to make money from the long side.

In the winners list, the fertilizer names and Ultrashort Financial and Real Estate remain from the last go around, but have become even bigger winners. Dropping off the winners list were Suntech Power (STP), Foster Wheeler (FWLT). 2 more Ultrashorts (Russell 2000 and China) make the list, and coal continues to be a nice exposure for the fund. Interestingly, unlike a position such as Mosaic which has been a top weighting for much of the fund history, even smaller stakes in the Ultrashort China and Mechel (which are generally 1-2% weightings) have provided some huge returns.

Top 10 Winners
Mosaic (MOS) +48.6K - fertilizer
Ultrashort Financial (SKF) +33.4K
CF Industries (CF) +31.7K - fertilizer
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) +22.6K
Potash (POT) +17.7K - fertilizer
Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) +14.6K
Consol Energy (CNX) +13.7K - coal
Mechel (MTL) +11.0K - steel/coal/iron
Ultrashort Xinghau China 25 (FXP) +10.0K
Mastercard (MA) +8.7K credit cards

On the losers list, my new forays into the financials have only cut off my fingers; and my 2 solar darlings continue to be pure anathema, turning from bad performers into terrible performers. A former big winner for the fund, Crocs, turned into a loser despite my selling many points higher from current levels. I've also added some tech damage at the bottom of the list with my forays into South American e-commerce & Apple.

Top 10 Losers
Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) -22.9K - high end mortgages
Trina Solar (TSL) -22.2K - solar
LDK Solar (LDK) -19.8K - solar
Riverbed Technology (RVBD) -11.0K - networking
MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA) -10.8K - mortgage REIT
Crocs (CROX) -9.0K - plastic shoes
NII Holdings (NIHD) -8.1K - cell phone
Mercadolibre (MELI) -7.1K -Latin America e-commerce
Apple (AAPL) -6.9K - computers/consumer entertainment
Solarfund (SOLF) -6.6K - solar

While this is an ugly list above, I do believe quite a few names have some upside once the market regains its feet, but for now they remain relatively smallish positions. We will always have losers, but the key is the amounts in the losers list remain smaller than the the amounts in the winners list. Judging from how poorly the average stock is faring in this market, I'll be satisfied with that. We'll check back early in the summer for the next update.