Friday, March 7, 2008

Ciena (CIEN) Continues to Execute

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Ciena (CIEN) was briefly the fund's top position in the fall, and made us some solid profits. However, I sold it out of the portfolio a few months ago off [Jan 8: Closing Ciena], and right now the networking stocks simply are not a place to be... even companies executing are continuously sold off due to fears of "future" slowdowns. Perception is reality; so as perception is things must slow in the future the stocks continue to be weak, no matter what reality they provide every quarter. Some of the valuations in the sector are ridiculous but in a bear market, value means nothing... they can stay at ridiculous valuations for as long as the market wants. When the money flow returns to this sector, so will I. But I still keep up to date on the best names.... Ciena has earnings up and is up a nice 11% as a result. Even with today's huge gain, the stock is exactly at the same price I sold out of it nearly 60 days ago.
  • Communications equipment maker Ciena Corp (CIEN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a higher-than-expected rise in quarterly profit on Friday and gave an outlook above market expectations, saying strong demand for faster networks helped it avoid being hurt by a weaker economy.
  • The stock is down 48 percent from 2007 highs on worries about increasing competition from bigger rivals, many of which have merged over the past few years.
  • Ciena, which sells optical switches and other products that support Internet protocol (IP) networks, said it was optimistic about its outlook. The company forecast full-year revenue growth of up to 27 percent, better than the average analyst forecast of 22 percent growth according to Reuters Estimates.
  • "While we are mindful of the macro economic environment, indications from our customers to date suggest no change in the fundamental drivers of Ciena's business: the demand for increasing network capacity and the transition to ethernet/IP-based network infrastructures," Ciena Chief Executive Gary Smith said in a statement.
  • Ciena said its fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 38 percent to $227.4 million. Analysts, on average, had forecast revenue of $225.7 million for the quarter, which ended Jan. 31, according to Reuters Estimates.
  • Quarterly net profit rose to $28.8 million, or 28 cents a share, from $11.1 million, or 12 cents a share, in the same quarter a year earlier. Adjusted earnings rose to 47 cents from 22 cents, far exceeding the average analyst forecast of 39 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

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