Remember last Tuesday? The so called best day in the markets in 5 years? [Yowsers!] Already an antique! I've come up with a new strategy - be long Tuesdays, and short every other day - should make me a billionaire within the year.
While it's a fool games to try to predict short term stock market movements on a consistent basis, it doesn't mean it's still not fun. I mentioned this morning [Short Term Bullish?], it might be time to bring out the barrels of Kool Aid since everyone in the media and other blogs was starting to sound like me. Makes the contrarian in me jump out of my skin.
Later today [Not Selling... (Yet?)] I asked if this was the time to sell since last Tueday/Wednesday you wanted to get out of dodge as quick as possible ... but I thought/think this time is different.
We have a bit of resistance at S&P 1320, but the Fed and PPT will take care of that. No problem. Maybe we'll have to worry a bit at S&P 1360. Ahh... having the Fed protect my stock account is... priceless! (Speaking of which VISA IPO imminent). Whatever I do... whatever choice I make... Ben is on my side. Feeling like 1999 all over again.
Sprinkled in between that tongue in cheek is some reality. S&P 1320 was a key level, and we blasted right through that as if it didn't exist. So as I wrote, I'll probably be a Kool Aid toting Bull until S&P 1350s... does it mean I'll be selling this short exposure? Nah, only have about 11-12% and I can't count on being so fortuitous as I was today. Sometimes you get lucky in timing.
And ironically, I am trailing the market - these days the market indexes explode (last Tuesday and this Tuesday) it is just hard to keep up with the indexes unless you are completely unhedged.
So we'll see what the rest of the week brings but this bulletproof attitude I spoke about this morning has seemed to seep into the market. We'll see how how the S&P handles a serious technical level (50 day moving average) if/when we get there. But I'm still not selling down long exposure (I'd normally be layering out after this sort of move) since my hunch is we keep rolling... after all, we have the government on our side now! And helicopters, fire trucks, and jumbo jets filled to the gills with Kool Aid. Excellent :) Life is good.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
A Box of Chocolates Every Tuesday
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TraderMark
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3:51 PM
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4 comments:
I have 1324 on the S&P500 as weekly resistance; I had written a piece at SafeHaven.com where I discussed the break of support levels while sentiment was bearish; during the 1970's such breaks of support usually led to the market tanking like in 1974 when it dropped another 20% plus; from 1982 to 1998, such breaks of support were fakeouts and closes back above old support/ new resistance was the signal to get long; 1995 and 1998 are good examples here. In the spring of 2002, there was a break of support levels while sentiment was bearish, and this led to a move of 29% lower in the SP500 over the next 4 months despite the extremes in sentiment. So my point? I have been keying off of 1324 SP500 on weekly closing basis. A close back above this level would mean that the recent dive to the lows was a fakeout. Second point: it was easy to underperform over the past 10 days especially if you pay attention to risk; not every time period will have a happy ending; once again consider the 1970's. It is interesting that in this period of Fed intervention (1982 to present) there really has been one significant down turn (2002) that has not responded to monetary intervention. Lastly, Friday's close will be important.
Here is an interesting piece that keeps it real in wake of this short term bottom that people are all excited about!
http://europac.net/Schiff-FBN-3-14-08_lg.asp?ref=patrick.net
Cheers...
pankaj,
Someone didn't drink their Kool Aid this morning? Do you need and IV transfusion? Come on in the water's great! ;)
;).. I agree.. I will soon join in. Cheers..
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