I am beginning two mining positions, based on strength in metals, specifically iron ore. I've been patiently awaiting pullbacks in both names - one has hit my initial target and the other has not fully, so I am weighting these differently.
First, I am adding a full position here in CVRD (RIO), the Brazilian conglomerate.... we have seen great price increases in iron ore of late [CVRD Secures 65% Increase in Iron Ore Pricing], and I like the stability of iron because prices are on contract as opposed to spot pricing as with most metals. But CVRD is one of 3 global giants in mining, and the other 2 are engaged in a takeover battle, so this is the clean and easy choice. Technically, the stock has fallen from a recent high of $37.50 to its 50 day moving average just over $33; about a 11% correction. So I've bought a 700 share position here in the $33.40s for a 2.1% exposure for the fund. This won't be a lightning shot type of position, but should be a nice slow and steady stock that I can cut back on when it runs and add as it falls, during a sustained long term trend.
Second, I am adding Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) which is an American iron ore company with some coal exposure - I am shocked this company has not been bought out by now to be blunt. Since the stock has not fully fallen to any key support I only have done a starter position of 50 shares or 0.5% type of position in the $112s range. I was hoping to see $109 which is the 50 day moving average but that's just 2-3% away so I suppose I am being a bit picky; it is down from near $128 so a 12.5% correction. The reasoning is identical to CVRD, but the action in this stock is much more trader friendly in terms of volatile action. But this also makes it more prone to profit taking, hence why I did not build a larger position yet. I'd love to buy a large stake in the mid to upper $90s if possible.
In my 'World of Shortages' scenario the assets these companies own will only become more valuable over time. That said, they are heavily reliant on China to continue it's outsized building and use of steel especially - but at least with CVRD's case they mine many metals so this gives me broad exposure to other commodities as well.
Long both positions in fund; long neither in personal account
Friday, March 7, 2008
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3 comments:
Mark,
Good call on Vale and CLF. My dad bought both of those before he passed away, and we still own them today.
What do you think of US Steel or Nucor? Do the fact that iron ore costs are rising so fast scare you in that their margins will be squeezed, or can they pass the costs along?
Rob
Yes that has been my concern on steel but the stocks continue to perform. I just dont know how much more they can pass on; I know it is becoming debilitating in the auto industry.
I owned CLF a few years ago - I wish I held it :)
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