Bookkeeping: Purchases Today (A Whole List)

I am running behind and have not had a chance to do last week's transaction update.

Just quick thoughts... as we discussed last week "the generals" (leadership groups) need to be shot; which is now beginning - time to review the buying list we were making the past few weeks and begin purchases. Since I am still worried about further downside moves I am still buying in small scale, about $4-$5K lots but as I wrote last week, my strategy would be to layer in once the selling began, so things are playing out as I anticipated - and today is my first layer across many of my favorite groups. My plan is laid out in 'Thoughts on Fertilizer' which I wrote last week. Again, when we reach this stage that the leadership stocks get hit, I always have a very bad week in terms of fund performance but it's a necessary evil for longer term outperformance since it is impossible to call exact market bottoms. I plan to add the next layer of purchases either when stocks begin hitting lower levels of technical resistance and/or we have that "throw everything out" sort of waterfall panic selling.

This afternoon I have bought layers in

1. Russian mining/coal/steel Mechel (MTL) @ $123.70s - fallen to 20 day moving average of $125 - next target $113 or 50 day moving average
2. Gold miner Kinross Gold (KGC) @ $23.90s - fallen just below 20 day moving average of $24.20s - next target mid $22.00s which is the 50 day moving average.
3. Silver company Silver Wheaton (SLW) @ $17.20s - just about to hit its 20 day moving average of $17.00 - next target is $16.50s which is the 50 day moving average
   
4. Brazilian homebuilder Gafisa (GFA) @ $35.60s - fallen just below 50 day moving average of $36 - next target $33 or 200 day moving average
5. Fertilizer Mosaic (MOS) @ $96.10s - broken its 50 day moving average of $100. Next target is "I'll take it by ear", as the 200 day moving average is down at $65. I'll be hoping to layer in the $80s if the market pounds this one down.
   
6. Fertilizer CF Industries (CF) @ $105.90s - broken its 50 day moving average of $114. Same strategy as Mosaic.
7. Fertilizer Potash (POT) @ $145.30s - right at 50 day moving average. Same strategy as Mosaic - I would like to see more weakness here to add more.
   
8. Infrastructure Shaw Group (SGR) @ $56.00s - right at 200 day moving average.
9. Infrastructure Jacobs Engineering (JEC) @ 71.00s - this is actually a poor chart as the stock broke below its 200 day moving average of $73.30s
   
10. Iron ore Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) @ @105.90s - I just began this position Friday with a starter stake so I am doubling it with another 50 shares - the stock has broken its 50 day moving average of $109
11. Mining giant CVRD (RIO) @ $31.70s - I just began this position Friday with a pretty sizeable position when it hit its 50 day moving average of $33. It has now broken that level and 200 day moving average is in the $29.30s
12. Trina Solar (TSL) @ $29.30s - I can't give you any good technical reason to purchase this and it is at January lows. The sector is out of favor but I really liked the last earnings report and will begin expanding this position.
13. DryShips (DRYS) @ $61.10s - well this one was supposed to be a trade but it has moved so quickly I am going to be adding here. The stock broke its 200 day moving average of $70 (which is bad) but frankly this stock doesn't seem to obey technicals much. The stock went as low as the $50s in January 2008 so I'll be looking to see if I can add more there.
    
14. Chinese hog producer Zhongpin (HOGS) @ $10.30s - I don't use technicals as much for this stock as it is so thinly traded, but it broke its 200 day moving average of $11.25 and now approaches January 2008 lows.
15. Coal Consol Energy (CNX) @ $68.00s - broke its 50 day moving average of $72.40s; kind of in no man's land like Mosaic on the chart - a long way down before next support levels so I'll look for January 2008 as to where to layer in next
16. Coal Massey Energy (MEE) @ $34.30s - broke its 50 day moving average of $38.00; same comments as Consol Energy
    
17. Arch Coal (ACI) @ @44.90s - broke its 50 day moving average of $47.00; same comments as Consol Energy
18. Deep sea oil drillers Atwood Oceanics (ATW) @ $83.50s - broken below 50 day moving average and looks like a sure thing for 200 day moving average of $79.60s where I'll add more
19. Medical (gene) company Illumina (ILMN) @ $62.70s - this stock has been a tower of power, but finally is breaking down - I've been waiting quite a long time. I am not using moving average for this stock; instead there is a "gap" from early January when the stock jumped (and I sold most of my position) on settlement of patent issues. I am looking for that gap to be filled (a gap is simply when a stock opens at price materially higher than when it closed the previous day, creating a "hole" in the chart)
20. Apple (AAPL) @ $119s! For the first time in a long time I like the action in Apple; the chart is a complete disaster but it is holding up relatively well. I am still hoping to get more under $110 but this is one of the best franchises out there and all the hand wringing over iPod this or iPhone that, misses the bull market in Macs as they take over market share.
    

Again, these are not huge purchases individually, and other than Cleveland Cliffs and CVRD which I just started positions in Friday, I layered "out" (sold partial positions) at higher prices so I am buying back lower and adding exposure. This is essentially an "allocation" switch from cash to long positions. I have about $40K left of cash. While this selling is bad, it is necessary - and we still have not reached in my opinion a panic stage... when I see most of the names above down 10-12% I'll become more convinced. Must that type of selling happen? No, but it would be typical of action of past 6 months.

Overall, I am pretty much where I want to be in coal in terms of fund exposure (filled to the gills). I still would like to add materially to my fertilizer exposure but want to wait on better pricing (lower). There are other stocks, sectors faltering but right now I've added to about 20 of my 52 long positions... I am focusing on the same groups, commodities and those companies either based outside the US or are not reliant on US customers for majority of business. That will be consistent for a long while in the fund.... especially hits home as I drive by all these gas stations at $3.30 and keep reminding myself not to buy the retail Kool Aid... so many Americans live paycheck to paycheck and inflation will be gouging them. It is going to a very rough year in our "real" economy I am afraid. Again, don't believe the hype (most) stocks are "cheap" - that is based on 2008 earnings - all these models have 2nd half of 2008 BOOMING. That's complete fiction. When these 2nd half 2008 earnings get slashed and the Kool Aid is replaced by reality - we might be able to bottom.

We quickly approach S&P 500 level 1270. Again, if this level breaks, all bets are off.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosaic and Trina Solar in personal account