- Mechel (MTL); bought in $123.70s Monday - selling @ $138.90s = +12.2%
- Mosaic (MOS); bought in $96.10s Monday - selling @ $107.90s = +12.3%
- CF Industries (CF); bought in $105.90s Monday - selling @ $117.70s = +11.1%
- Potash (POT); bought in $145.30s Monday - selling @ $156.00s = +7.6%
- Shaw Group (SGR); bought in $56.00s Monday - selling @ $60.60s = +8.3%
- CVRD (RIO); bought in $31.70s Monday - selling @ $34.40s = +8.5%
- Sohu.com (SOHU); not a recent buy but stock is approaching resistance at the 50 day moving average of $47.60s, so I am selling here.
- Baidu.com (BIDU); I really like the action in some of the tech names lately as I've written - for the first time in a long while some of these names have been greater than 1% positions of late. I didn't buy Monday but have been buying small lots in the $240s for the past 2 weeks; with the stock breaking out today to near $280 I am taking some of that off the table. This is a gain of over 15%
- Apple (AAPL); bought in $119s Monday - selling @ $127s = +6.7%
- Kinross Gold (KGC); bought in $23.90s Monday - selling @ $25.60s = +7.1%
- Powershares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA); I did not buy any Monday around $39 since I already had it as the largest positions but it is up nearly 8% since, so I am taking some off.
- Gafisa (GFA); bought in $35.60s Monday - selling @ $38.20s = +7.3%
- Illumina (ILMN); bought in $62.70s Monday - selling @ $66.50s = +6.0%
- Mastercard (MA); I don't see any specific news except that US consumers are cutting back to pay for gas with their credit cards (as was my long stated bull case for Mastercard), but the stock is up as Visa (V) IPO is imminent so I am taking some off the table here @ $205.80s
- HDFC Bank (HDB); I did not buy this Monday but had been buying last week; the stock is now approaching a key resistance of the 200 day moving average of $104, so I am selling in the $102s (went down to $93s Monday)
I mentioned S&P 1330 level as the point of first resistance and where I'd begin to layer in a new round of Ultrashorts. (along with raising cash which is what I am doing with the above sells). We reached that level today, so I am going to begin buying more insurance against my long exposure. This is simply the type of action one must do to survive in bear markets - take the gains when offered even if the market continues higher and you miss out on some further upside. The risk is simply too high to "buy and hold" as almost all position gains get erased. What will I be doing when/if the market pulls back? Buying back all these positions I assume. It is simply the environment we have - it takes many more transactions than in a bull market when you can "buy and ride" the high quality names.
Depending on what the Fed has up it's sleeve as it adapts into a short killer, I still believe the topside is limited to S&P 1370 which is 3% higher from here by next week's meeting. To turn into a Kool Aid touting bull, I'd have to see S&P 1400+. Until proven otherwise I consider all these lifts to be suspect, so I continue to sell into them, and raise short exposure. One day, this methodology will be INCORRECT as the market will have begun a new bull market... and when that happens I will take some losses, and trail the market for that week or two. But between now and whenever "then" is, I hope to continue to outperform indexes and peers by following this pattern.
Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosaic, Powershares DB Agriculture fund in personal account
2 comments:
hi mark,
what is the chance SRS & SKF will hit 200 ema before next Tuesday?
Hi Wan,
I really dont use Technicals on the ETFs
Since they are simply a reflection of the many companies they own, its not quite so useful. i.e. if Citibank drops 8% 1 day, being the largest weighting in SKF, it really doesn't mean that SKF needs to go to the 200 day moving average.
I expect another 50 basis point cut next week. How the market reacts is total guesswork but the US consumers debt situation continues to degrade which is the next leg down for the banks... and they still have to deal with the mortgage mess which is not going away anytime soon. Until home prices begin to stabilize (or at least 6 months before they do as the market is a forward looking mechanism) it is hard to get too happy about financials other than for oversold trades. No matter how happy people get about Fed actions.
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