Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Bookkeeping: Expanding the Agriculture Exposure

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I am making some decent sized buys today in the 2 potash stocks as both stocks are down 8-9% and falling to roughly the 50 day moving average. The chart for both look very similar. About $7-9K purchases, Mosaic around $100 and Potash around $148s. I've been waiting a while to see some weakness so perhaps this is *it* or the start of something more. Either way these names have been major holdings for the funds, especially Mosaic (MOS), that I cut back on of late, waiting for some signs of weakness so I am beginning to re-up the positions (that I sold down at higher prices). I've held Mosaic as a 6-7% stake many times in the past so I'd like to get back there, but at lower price points.

If the weakness continues (which frankly I do hope it does), I'd like to add Mosaic in the upper $80s and Potash in the mid $130s. Maybe they will get there, maybe they won't. For now Mosaic is pushed up to 3.7% stake (would like to get it to 6%+) and Potash 2.6% (would like to get it to 4%+).

I've also added some more Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) on this serious weakness the past few days. This is the other side of the coin of living with hedge fund computers who have piled into your favorite sector. Volatility shoots up, but it does create some trading opportunities around a core stake.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long all except Potash in personal account

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