I am making some decent sized buys today in the 2 potash stocks as both stocks are down 8-9% and falling to roughly the 50 day moving average. The chart for both look very similar. About $7-9K purchases, Mosaic around $100 and Potash around $148s. I've been waiting a while to see some weakness so perhaps this is *it* or the start of something more. Either way these names have been major holdings for the funds, especially Mosaic (MOS), that I cut back on of late, waiting for some signs of weakness so I am beginning to re-up the positions (that I sold down at higher prices). I've held Mosaic as a 6-7% stake many times in the past so I'd like to get back there, but at lower price points.
If the weakness continues (which frankly I do hope it does), I'd like to add Mosaic in the upper $80s and Potash in the mid $130s. Maybe they will get there, maybe they won't. For now Mosaic is pushed up to 3.7% stake (would like to get it to 6%+) and Potash 2.6% (would like to get it to 4%+).
I've also added some more Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) on this serious weakness the past few days. This is the other side of the coin of living with hedge fund computers who have piled into your favorite sector. Volatility shoots up, but it does create some trading opportunities around a core stake.
Long all names mentioned in fund; long all except Potash in personal account
3 comments:
DAGNABBIT MARK... THis is getting scary.
You must be my doppleganger. I just finished addding POT and MOS to my accounts. and now I take a look at your blog and ... shazam !!! Cue the Twilight Zone music.
OK, I took one more step.. I initiated positions in some coal names, CNX and ANR (mychoice for Met coal).
Your move !!!
I have enough coal exposure for now. ANR never treated me well in the past but I havent looked at it in over a year.
I am buying a swath of short exposure and now waiting to see if the Federal Reserve and PPT is bigger than the market or vice versa.
We remain in the most interesting financial times ever....
I would advise being long 3:59 next Monday evening as every Tuesday we have the "biggest move in 5 years due to government/Federal Reserve meddling". ;)
Mark:
I think this market acts like a manic-depressive. One minute suicidal, next minute euphoric, next minute despondent, next minute on cloud nine.
But remember, these are all "PROFESSIONALS" running the show, at trading desks, running hedge funds, managing billion dollar portfolios... so we little folk have NOTHING at all to worry about.
Right???????
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