Friday, March 7, 2008

Bookkeeping: Coal Finally Correcting - Continuining to Build Up Positions

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I added Massey Energy (MEE) this morning, so now with the other 3 coal focused name in the fund finally seeing good signs of weakness I am adding new $4-$5K type of layers into the others
  1. Peabody Energy (BTU) - in $52s, worst shape technically, now below the 50 day and breaking down to 200 day moving average
  2. Consol Energy (CNX) - in $74s, right near 50 day moving average
  3. Arch Coal (ACI) - in $47s, right near 50 day moving average

I certainly don't expect this to be their bottoms, but will continue to expand my basket of coal names as they fall. Aside from fertilizer this will be my 2nd biggest "commodity" weighting, as the macro trends continue to favor this sector. I do expect to take a 10%+ type of exposure as we continue to break down, and the stocks continue to (hopefully) falter to lower prices.

Speaking of, fertilizers are showing their first signs of weakness in a long while- other than a small purchase in CF Industries (CF) I am awaiting the other names to fall to their 50 day moving averages before making the first purchases. Again, in time like this when my major weighting suffer the fund performance will take a near term hit, but these are the positions that constantly make us good money when the market rebounds.

Long all names mentioned in fund; long none in personal account


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