Well that was quick. Yesterday I mentioned I was increasing exposure to the 2 precious metal stocks [Bookkeeping: Adding to Precious Metals], as they fell to their 20 day moving averages
I am taking this opportunity to add a good amount of exposure to both Kinross Gold (KGC) and Silver Wheaton (SLW) - both charts are identical - stocks in solid moves up which have pulled back to a first level of support (20 day moving average). Both risk falling further to 50 day moving average where I would buy more.
Now, according to plan they both have quickly shed more value and dropped right near their 50 day moving averages, so I am adding another layer to both positions. So far it's been a textbook pullback - can they fall further? Certainly, as the hedge fund invasion into commodities has caused massive volatility, but the underlying trends have not changed and short of a new era of dollar strength, and equity market resurgance these should rebound well on the next market selloff.
I've added to Kinross Gold in the $23.30s, and Silver Wheaton in the $17.00s; the former is now a 3.0% position and the latter 2.8%.
Long both names in fund and personal account
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Bookkeeping: Both Precious Metals Stocks Drop to 50 Day Moving Average, so Adding More
Posted by
TraderMark
at
9:46 AM
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Labels: Kinross Gold, Silver Wheaton
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3 comments:
MarK
Again, I was doing the same thing as you... adding more this morning to the gold names I started late yest.
When was the last time the Fed cut rates by 75 bp and Gold fell over $50/oz ????
I am not a "gold bug" but right now the PMs seem like continuing plays on the weak dollar and possible inflation, and nothing the Fed has done to cut rates or bail out banks obviates that thesis as far as I can tell.
In the fourth quarter of 2007, Kinross Gold reported lower production at its Round Mountain gold mine and higher than expected costs. Cash costs for 2008 now look to be around $370 an ounce. Contrast that to cash costs of $195 for Goldcorp.
hi Sheng, I picked Kinross as a proxy on the group. Looking at the 3 month relative performance I am happy with the results vs peers
http://tinyurl.com/33nuum
Note: GDX is Market Vectors gold miners so a basket of the bunch. Again, I'm a generalist and not a gold bug but I laid out in my initial purchase of Kinross why I liked them. Its not a 5 year hold, but for this 3-12 month period I liked their prospects the most with the least political risk as far as I could tell.
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