Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Will Baidu.com (BIDU) Do for Tech what First Solar (FSLR) did for Solar?

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Should be a very interesting report tonight from Baidu.com (BIDU). The high beta tech stocks are as beaten down as the solar stocks have been. I am curious if we get a similar reaction across the food chain in tech tomorrow if Baidu.com reports a quarter as they should. Much like First Solar (FSLR) I expect very good numbers. And much like First Solar, my only question is "will it beat heightened expectations". All it takes is 1 spark and you see the massive (over)reaction across a beaten down sector. Something to keep an eye out for.

As we can see from the S&P500 chart, we could rally to near 1400 before running into trouble (about 3% higher from here). But as the charts show, we continue to make a lot of swings up and down, and really we are getting nowhere fast. A lot of fun trading for daytraders I suppose, but for holding anything for more than 3-4 days, it is useless action. See-saw back and forth literally by the day. You can see we are right back to where we were in mid January - so 4 weeks of nothing happening except a lot of volatility each day and nothing to show for it.

But notice yet again a new "lower high" appears to be forming.... subject to change if we make a powerful 5-7% move farther from here, but thus far it just looks like we are setting up for another round of sucking people in, only to crush their hopes. The week to week volatility is just mind numbing. We've had a 5% down week, followed by a 5% up week, followed by a 5% down week (3 of the past 4 weeks) and at this pace we're going to have another 5% up week. No rhyme. No reason. Just huge swings. All to get to the same destination.


1 comments:

TraderMark said...

Up 11% in after hours on a very good beat. Guidance a bit light but people seem to be ignoring it. Once again, the tide from fear to greed changes on a dime.

S&P +3.4% for week, could be yet another week of 4.5% moves up or down, 4th in 5 weeks - amazing.

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