Monday, February 11, 2008

An Interesting Development in Natural Gas

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A very interesting thing is happening in natural gas; the stocks are taking off. This raises the eyebrows... first, unlike crude oil (easily transportable) which is a global commodity, due to difficult nature in transport natural gas is relatively "local"; hence natural gas should be more of a direct tie to the US economy. However (second), as coal increases in cost many industrial customers (or utilities) switch to natural gas. Could a World of Shortages scenario be pulling in natural gas demand as coal is being used more and more for exports? Maybe.

So I am leaning to the second point since I doubt a massive economic revival is happening - but I had to dig out some old notes to review some names from the past (haven't traded a natural gas stock in probably 3 years) and below are the charts. Either way it is some very interesting action; both the moves off January lows (some of these stocks have been nearly dormant for years) and the positively tremendous action today in names up and down the food chain.













No position other than rampant curiousity

4 comments:

pik said...

Mark,

I think Uranium has been beat down enough that your radar should be up if a rally happens. Its sitting at $75 a pound which is almost half of its high from last year. I went long CCJ at 32.35.

NSTIEGE said...

GAZ is the best thing i've found for taking part in the growing appreciation of nat gas.

Fast Money guys and Cramer seem to love APA but it isn't a pure play.

frogfan99 said...

XTO is my favorite, but I also follow SWN and KWK...these two seem to be better for trades, while XTO is an excellent long term play...best of breed and seems to be less volatile.

TraderMark said...

pjk, never been able to get behind uranium

nstiege, thanks for head up on GAZ - I've been so away fron ng for so long have not been keeping up with things. Fast Money is behind everything i.e. with 4 traders one of them is behind something at all times. Will give Cramer kudos on ng but he has been behind it times last year too when it does not move.... something about a clock being right twice a day here.

frog, I used to play KWK ECA CNQ CHK - for whatever reason the canadian ng plays are trailing the americans. I thought maybe it was the Chavez issue but they have had a nice rally even before then. XTO APA APC have always been good names but most of them are mixes of oil/gas.

Anyhow something to monitor. I am really curious if coal is causing this switching to ng.

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