Earnings on Tap This Week

Just a few more weeks of the earnings storm to go...

Names of interest

Tuesday
Crocs (CROX) - this former fund holding was sold out as a risk aversion tactic. I actually like the valuation here, which is why I held on and was adding to the name as the stock fell; it would be especially interesting if last month's inventory buildup was indeed transitory in nature. Like most beaten up stocks this has the potential to go up 25% in a heartbeat as it is a heavily shorted name, and an "earnings beat" can move this stock quickly.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - this quality tech stock has been beaten down with the rest in the selloff. We can look to see if there is any view on world growth and potential slowdowns. This has seemed to weigh on all tech names. A good number might help inspire related names.

MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) - formerly held name in the fund as a safety hedge. Will be interesting to see if they have any commentary on Walmart's proposed move to infringe on their space.

RTI International Metals (RTI) - Industrial metals name with some focus on titanium; an area I was involved with very early in fund history. I still see some potential for profits in this space, but these stocks seem to ebb and flow with the US economy.

Walmart (WMT) vs Whole Foods (WFMI) - Walmart is seeing benefits from its grocery division, but at whose expense? Will economic realities strap people's will to eat more healthy?

Wednesday
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) - gold miner

Garmin (GRMN) - I held this GPS name briefly but I think the main ship has sailed; commodity hardware markets only have limited shelf life before fears of future profit erosion begin to weigh on a stock. Doesn't mean it cannot have a few more good quarters in it, but as a pure growth stock it was time to begin to be wary as of Dec 25th midnight 2007. I only am watching because some might still consider this a semi-bellweather for tech stocks.

Huron Consulting Group (HURN) - this is one of my current fund holdings which has a smaller arm that deals with 'reorganizations' (a nice term for bankruptcies); this is more of a 2009 trend than 2008 so it might take time for it to hit it's stride. The chart has recently denegrated so I've cut back exposure (rules are rules), but I still like the concept for 2009. There might be some concern that the rest of their domestic business (all forms of consulting) might be at risk however.

Oceaneering International (OII) - another in the group of oil service names I like, but the market has hammered relentlessly. Some uptick in the past 2 weeks, but the stock now approaches resistance in its chart (50 day moving average). Once this group shows technical strength I stand at the ready to move back in.

Suntech Power (STP) - my favorite Chinese solar stock from a stability and long term perspective. However, the stock performance of late has been troubling as it has shown little relative strength. Since I follow this name so closely, I will be very interested to see what they have to say, and if the chart is foreshadowing some issue. Further, the CEO is among the best so I'll be listening to future guidance (for the entire industry) closely.

The TJX Companies (TJX) - downscale retailer; if anyone is going to flourish in a recessionary economy, it will be a company like this.

Transocean (RIG) - deep sea oil driller; I don't own this specific name but the pattern has been set - weakness in US and shallow water; strength in deep sea.

Thursday
Barrick Gold (ABX) - the big fish of gold miners; Goldcorp (GG) - and another; Kinross Gold (KGC) - and another, except I own this one; Newmont Mining (NEM) - and another

Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) - a very big, early winner for the fund - but we've returned all gains (and then some) in this name. After seeing this report I'll probably decided whether to exit both this position and Riverbed Technology (RVBD). The "overhang" over both stocks is not something that can be fixed easily - simply fears of future enterprise spending slowdowns. There is no "solution" to that perception other than a large uptick in the US economy. So if these continued good reports by these companies don't do the trick; I'll exit for now and revisit the names at a later date. Much like Crocs this is a name that could be +/- 20% immediately after earnings; so I've cut exposure going into this week.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) - one of the natural gas leaders; the stock has exploded higher in the past week. Will be curious what they attribute strength in ng to (switch from more expensive coal?)

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) - I've simply missed on pulling the trigger on this iron ore name multiple times over the past few months. I thought conviction about a global slowdown would hurt the stock over a longer period of time, but the emerging markets appear to be continuing on their merry way while developing markets slow. This is also a likely takeover candidate.

Express Scripts (ESRX) - see MedcoHealth Solutions earlier

ICON (ICLR) - this is a little Irish, drug contract research organization (CRO); a group I like save for the substantial valuation in all the names.

MGM Mirage (MGM) - you'd assume a struggling consumer would have less money to splurge in Vegas....

Olympic Steel (ZEUS) - I was high on US Steel (X) 6 weeks ago; nailed the sector but a rising tide did not lift all boats--> I picked the wrong horse - this name is on FIRE.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) - results might affect fund holding Silver Wheaton (SLW)

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - would it be greedy to say "it's a restauraunt; it must be shorted"? Ruth's Chris Steak House (RUTH) too?

Friday

Nil