Sunday, February 3, 2008

Earnings on Tap Mon - Tue

Monday is a pretty quiet day...

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) - lately has been an ethanol/ag play.

Illumia (ILMN) - fund holding which I've cut back since the huge spike off of the patent settlement. I am hoping for something investors don't like so they cut the stock down at the knees so I can re-enter lower.

Manitowoc (MTW) - a darling of 2007 as its cranes were found throughout Asia and the Middle East (SOHU) - a name I have considered adding to the fund as a cheaper way to play online search (along with gaming) in China. Still looking.

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) - no seriously. If the rescue plan for housing goes as is, and conforming loans that are allowed to be stuffed into Freddie, and Fannie goes to $700K+ - this is *THE* name to play. I have my eye on it.

Yum Brands (YUM) - a restaurant stock (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) which is trying to offset US slowdown with foreign growth.


Bankrate (RATE) - this helps people get mortgages. With the housing boom going on (or will be this summer) this is a stock to own. It is at its 52 week high; at 40x earnings. I kid you not.

BHP Billiton (BHP) - market darling of most of the past few years. I think a great long term stock but it ebbs and flows in this bipolar market. When the market thinks global growth is booming it goes up; when the market thinks global growth is slowing it tanks. And sometimes the market thinks both of these within the same trading day. Currently encumbered with a potential takeover plan.

CB Richard Ellis (CBG) - I will keep an eye on this one, because they are essentially a transactions broker for commercial real estate. And if you have not heard, real estate is back baby!

Chicago Mercantile Group (CME) - former fund holding and still love the business; essentially a play on equity/commodity transactions. Been a bit range bound though and quite rich.

Church & Dwight (CHD) - mini Procter & Gamble

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) - I was just surprised to see this stock still exists ;) Anyone who was around in the late 90s, knows the story.

Nabors (NBR) - this was a stock Cramer pumped most of 2007. It is a land driller in North America - just the part of the food chain you do not want to be part of. I have not heard him pump it the past 2 months. However, when one of these report a bad quarter they usually take down deep sea oil drillers because after all a driller operating in Indonesia waters is the same as the someone drilling for natural gas in Oklahoma. Or at least by market logic it is.

Riverbed Technology (RVBD) - fund holding beaten to pieces. I expect this stock to be either up 30% or down 30% after this earnings report. And if it's up 30% is just a shame on the market. They beat down these stocks on "fears" for 12 out of 13 weeks, and then when the company reports a fine quarter the stock goes up... but that doesn't offset the 12 weeks it goes down. Same will apply to Blue Coat Systems (BCSI). Perception is reality never held more true with these type of stocks. We perceive you are struggling so therefore you are - we don't care what numbers you have been reporting.

Walt Disney (DIS) - curious to see if theme parks start to slow in 2008/2009 as the US consumer slows. No wait... Fed cuts solve everything. US consumer is fine.

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