Tomorrow is a big agriculture day. In fertilizer two of the Tier 2 type of names report: fund holding CF Industries (CF), and non fund holding Terra Industries (TRA) - these two focus more on the nitrogen end of things as their predominant sales piece.
Further in agriculture is equipment maker Agco (AG), which I just closed out as a position recently due to worries about how the market was treating this subsector. Still like the name from a fundamental point of view. Other names in ag tomorrow are Syngenta (SYT) & Bunge (BG).
Fund holdings and deep sea oil drillers Atwood Oceanics (ATW) and Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) report. Since these are oil related, and everything oil related is being unfairly drilled (I love puns!), I am going to lighten up ATW and DO going into these reports. ATW I am dropping from a 1.0% position to 0.4% (selling 75 of 125 shares). DO I am dropping from 1.3% position to 0.9% (selling 40 of 130 shares). Let me reiterate I like this space, and these names focus on INTERNATIONAL deep sea drilling but any hint/whiff of exposure to US markets (which they do have) makes people run for the hills, along with the whole "oil going to $85 issue". Market overreaction and it makes little sense, but we still lose money when people flee. Simply not worth holding heavy stakes in most sectors going into earnings nowadays, so I'll put this in the ever growing "better safe than sorry". If for whatever reason something good happens and the stocks pop, well that happens sometimes. However, these names are starting to approach some nice longer term support areas - when the market retracts from its shell of fear they will provide great entry points near these prices.
Note: I am not lightening up on fertilizer going into earnings simply because the valuations in these names are ridiculous and I also believe the analyst estimates are constantly utterly wrong and have been for the past 12-18 months. So I find much less risk in that sector, and that is why I am not being consistent in "selling down a position ahead of earnings" in this environment.
EDIT: I am actually buying some CF Industries (CF) today ahead of earnings... this was at one time my top position in the fund; just took a look at 08 estimates and I think analysts finally are understanding the picture. The thing is dirt cheap and should be >3% of the fund.
Other names of interest....
Activision (ATVI) - video game maker
DR Horton (DHI), MDC Holdings (MDC) - homebuilders
Friday, not much of interest
